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2007 Baseball Stratogists Top 100 Rookies - Players 1-10

By Dave Welch - Editor at-large
02/24/2007

Rankings contributed by John Christie, Paul Coffey, Doug Crandall, Brian Curran, Karl Farmer, Chris Hatfield, David Krantz, Rodger Long

For our third year in a row, we present our Top 100 Rookies, ranked 1 through 100. Special thanks to the gentlemen listed above, who reviewed 230 carded Strat rookies and ranked their best.


Young1. Delmon Young • Right Field • Tampa Bay

What can you say? Young just hits and hits and hits. And he does it for power and average. Young is Dmitri’s, um, younger brother. He has hit near or well over .300 in all of his minor league seasons and usually does so with a good dose of power. He steals bases and has good range in the outfield. He has just two holes in his game: lack of plate discipline skills and, well, lack of discipline. He was suspended for throwing his bat in 2006. But we can cut him some slack since he is just 21. Scouts say the onbase skills will arrive. Hopefully he’ll get a personality transplant, too. Most Strat managers pick him for No. 1 because he is just about can’t miss. His competition to start this year is Greg Norton. It may as well be Ed Norton.

Verlander2. Justin Verlander • Pitcher • Detroit

As starters go, Verlander put up the best rookie season of any among the fine crop of rookie hurlers in this year’s draft. His numbers weren’t as good as Liriano’s but he has nearly a full season of innings and Verlander is healthy. His strikeout rate wasn’t as impressive as Cole Hamels’ K-to-inning was, but Verlander is less of a health risk. He throws gas and should continue to become one of the top starters in the game. He probably is the best overall pitcher to take in this draft.

Drew3. Stephen Drew • Shortstop • Arizona

In one of my leagues, Drew was picked No. 1 by Strat-o-gist’s own Rick Speciale. Some other managers were surprised, but Rick makes a good case. Corner outfielders who can hit are easy to find, but a complete short stop is rare. Drew is a pretty good defender and hits for average. I have heard some scouts question how much power he will develop. But Drew hammered home runs in A and AA ball. Delmon Young is a better hitter, but you can’t quibble with anyone taking Drew with the first pick. He has the skills to be one of the best all-around short stops in baseball. My fearless forecast is that he will be like Jeter, only with more power and fewer steals.

Ramirez4. Hanley Ramirez • Shortstop • Florida

What’s not to love about a rookie season in which he hit .292 with a .350 onbase percentage, 17 homers and 51 steals? That’s an outstanding season for a veteran short stop. He has good range, but makes too many errors. Still, for a 23-year-old, Ramirez is outstanding and will help any team right now. The only warning signs are that Ramirez didn’t really show this kind of power in the minors. He may regress in the next season or two, but expect him to be very good for years to come. Hopefully, he will soften up his stony mitt.

Weaver5. Jered Weaver • Pitcher • Los Angeles (AL)

Jeff’s ‘Lil Bro had an outstanding rookie campaign, lighting up opposing lineups with a 1.03 WHIP and 2.56 ERA over 123 innings. He whiffed 105 batters, to boot. I don’t know if he will do that over a full season. His minor league numbers say that he’s good, but not that good just yet. And we have seen other pitchers come up and post great numbers in half a season only to regress a bit when they become a full member of the rotation from opening day. Think Matt Cain, who put up respectable but not great numbers in his sophomore season. But don’t let that discourage you. Weaver is a great pick and could even anchor your staff for years to come.

Markakis6. Nick Markakis • Right Field • Baltimore

Scouting experts like John Sickels have compared Markakis to Steve Finley and Andy Van Slyke. He hits for average, draws walks and has pretty good power. He can steal a few bases and is solid defensively. He’s just 23 and projects to build more power than last year’s .448 slugging percentage showed. The Orioles will start him in right this year. Markakis a very good one and worth a top 10 pick.

Liriano7. Francisco Liriano • Pitcher • Minnesota

He’s a phenom and probably the most talented pitcher in this draft. He throws mid-90s heat with good breaking pitches. His 144 K’s in 121 innings last year is fabulous. His elbow problems are not. Liriano has Tommy John surgery in November and will miss the 2007 season. He will fall out of the top 10 in many drafts because he will be a no-card next year. I’d probably take him in the second 10 picks, and not just because he won’t be carded next year. Plenty of pitchers—A.J. Burnett comes to mind—bounce back after Tommy John surgery and pitch well. But you’ll probably have to tolerate the occasional season where they only put up 120 or so innings. To me, that hits his value. He’s a true ace, but health is now a major concern.

Kendrick8. Howie Kendrick • Second Base • Los Angeles (AL)

Kendrick is a tremendous offensive player. He has hit for power and average at every level of the minors, He steals bases and draws walks. His power hasn’t arrived on the major League level yet. But it will. His defense isn’t great, but he is supposed to start at second for the Angels this year, which boosts his value considerably over just playing first. His .285 average in 267 at bats makes him somewhat useable this year, too. Given his pedigree and starting job for this year, he’s a great early pick. I might even pick him before Markakis just because it’s tougher to find infield offense.

Quentin9. Carlos Quentin • Right Field • Arizona

When I saw Quentin was on the board after pick 15 in one draft, I paid a princely sum to get pick number 16 and draft him. Quentin’s bat is a trip hammer. He draws walks like crazy, having had an onbase percentage over .400 at every level of the minors. In 166 atbats last year, he had a .872 OPS and nine home runs. That’s pretty sweet, and as long as he stays healthy there should be much more to come. With Luis Gonzalez signed in L.A. Quentin is starting in right this year. There you go. A cracking bat, a disciplined eye and a starting job. You know what to do. Long-term, he might be a better hitter than Markakis.

Hamels10. Cole Hamels • Pitcher • Philadelphia

You gotta love a pitcher who strikes out as many as he does (145 K’s in 132 innings last year) with a fast ball that doesn’t hit 95 mph. He has good command, plus breaking stuff and a fine change up. All of this says that the 24-year-old knows how to pitch. His only problem last year was the 17 home runs he allowed. But chalk that up to youth and that hitter’s haven he pitches in. The only issue with Hamels is his injury history. He has had a bunch of strange ones, including breaking his pitching hand by throwing a punch. Didn’t he watch Bull Durham? He has had some other minor problems with his back, elbow and shoulder. Still, he was healthy last year and is a great talent. The Sporting News says he could be the Phillies’ ace this year. Maybe. Brett Myers is a head case and Freddy Garcia just isn’t that great. In any case, he has a spot in the rotation for sure.

 

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