Making the Cut: Who Will Be There on Draft Day?
By David Welch - Editor at-large
12/16/2004
If you’re a hot prospect playing in the Minors, September is like Christmas. That’s when a lot of young studs get their cup of joe, logging a few innings or at-bats. Usually, the amount of playing time is miniscule and doesn’t give curious fans, fantasy gamers or Strat junkies much to go by in terms of their future as Major Leaguers. But their playing time is paramount in Strat, because that’s how the brain trust in Glen Head, N.Y. decide who gets carded and who needs to wait another season for their Strat-o debut.
Usually the cut off is around 30 innings pitched or at bats. Strat decides who gets a card based on that number and a few other rules, which we won’t get into. What’s great about these players is that they can fall down the draft order because they have minimal playing time. Some managers will pass on them because they have immediate needs to fill or would rather have someone with a proven track record.
Sometimes you can find some gems that maybe drop a little lower than their talent should command. Alfonso Soriano is a fine example. He hit below the Mendoza line in minimal play during his first season, and went around 16th in our league’s draft. Someone took Armas Jr. before him.
What you really need to know is, which hot prospects will be in your draft? Strat just posted its list of player ratings. Any player carded as a regular, additional or mixed player is carded in most Strat leagues. As an aside, I play in one league where even players with a dozen or so innings can be drafted.
Strat does make computer-only cards for those players that are included with the computer game. But for most leagues, the computer cards aren’t used. Here are the players – mostly pitchers – who were close calls to be carded or not. In order of perceived value…
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Scott Kazmir, LSP, Devil Rays: This is pretty big news, since Kaz is probably a top 10 pick in any league with a true rookie draft. He is considered by many to be one of the best pitching prospects in the game. Kazmir should get a crack at the rotation this season, but don’t expect a ton of innings. He is young and Lou Pinella will handle him gingerly. He could put up a solid season even though it is his first real action in the Majors.
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Gavin Floyd, RSP, Phillies: Floyd has a good curveball and is one of the better starter prospects around. There is so much flux in the Phil’s rotation that he should get a look. Don’t expect great results during his first year. But he should be a good one.
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Jeff Francis, RSP, Rockies: Francis is actually considered a better prospect than Floyd, but he will be pitching the thin air of Coors Field. That could mean some fat pitches will be sailing out of the yard. It’s a shame, too. He is a top talent headed for pitching purgatory. Still, he should get a lot of innings this year. Heck, Steve Carlton may be able to get some innings on that staff.
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Denny Bautista, RSP, Royals: His 30 lousy innings got him a card. Pick him and hope he develops better control soon. He throws hard and has good stuff. The learning curve may take longer than the aforementioned prospects, but he has a live arm. Bautista will get a shot this year and could stick.
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Clint Nageotte, RSR, Mariners: Nageotte has potential and is available. He will get a shot to start but forecasting guru Ron Shandler--whose book just started shipping by the way--says he may be better suited for the bullpen. So draft him with that in mind.
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Terry Tiffee, 3B/1B, Twins: Tiffee made the cut and he looks like he could be pretty good. He hit .307 in AAA last year and will get a shot to start at 3B this year, with Corey Koskie headed to Toronto. Tiffee only has to beat out Juan Castro, who has a lifetime .283 on-base percentage. The Twins could try to move Cuddyer to 3B, but count on Tiffee getting some serious playing time.
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Guillermo Quiroz, C, Blue Jays: I personally think this guy is overrated, but he will get a crack at starting for the Jays. He has some power, but a low batting average is part of the package. He is supposed to be pretty good defensively. His rivals are 38-year-old Greg Myers, career backup Greg Zaun and noted stiff Bobby Estalella. Barring a meltdown, he could get most of the playing time.
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John VanBenschoten, RSP, Pirates: VanBenschoten is a decent prospect. He doesn’t strike out many hitters, but he has a chance to stick. Just don’t draft him too early.
Notable by their absence
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Edwin Jackson, RSP, Dodgers: Well, E-Jax spared us all the agonizing decision over spending a high draft pick on this highly-touted young thrower. He regressed last year with a weak season in the minors and a bitter cup ‘o joe in L.A. See you next year.
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Jesse Crain, RRP, Twins: This one breaks my heart. Crain projects to be a very good setup man or closer. I figured I could grab him late, but now we’ll all have to wait.
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Tim Blackley, LSP, Mariners: Blackley looks good, but we won’t see him. He needs another year of development, anyway. Keep him on your list for next year.