The Injured Star: How to Cope
By David Welch - Editor at-large
01/02/2005
As the New Year begins, a vexed reader sends the Stratogist brain trust a very good question.
He has both Derek Jeter and Vlad Guerrero in his lineup, and both missed about one third of the 2003 Major League season. His question: Since his league has usage rules that allow you to only play a player as often as he actually played, how should he manage his lineup?
Should he bat Jeter second and Vlad third as logic dictates? Or should he bat Vlad sixth and Jeter seventh to conserve at-bats and use them more often? The answer isn’t simple, and not just because I don’t know who else is in the reader’s lineup. But you can do some simple math and come up with some smart alternatives.
First, think platoon player. If you can find a part-time player who has pretty good offense and can handle a spot in the order close to Jeter and Vlad, you’re golden. These guys are often cheap veterans with high on-base percentage or some power against, say, only lefties.
I happen to have personal experience with this, since in one league, I own Jorge Posada. He bats anywhere from fourth to sixth in my lineup. But he is always between 50 and 100 at-bats short of a full season. One year I found Chad Kreuter, who had 100 lefty-mashing at-bats, to sub. Another year it was Ramon Castro’s 90 lefty-mashing at-bats. Neither catcher was good enough even against lefties to hit fourth, but I could bat them sixth when Posada was resting.
Back to Vlad and Jeter. On one of my teams, I had a good enough lineup to win 103 games. That team needed 757 plate appearances in the two hole and 736 PA’s in the three hole. That’s where Jeter and Vlad should be hitting.
If you keep both players in those spots, you’ll need to make up about 200 plate appearances for Jeter and roughly 260 for Vlad. That assumes that the league adds 5% to every player’s useage, which many leagues do.
That sounds like a lot of extra PA’s to acquire. But even if you bat Jeter seventh and Vlad sixth, as the reader suggested, you still have to come up with 214 PA’s for Vlad and 114 for Jeter. That’s only 40 fewer PA’s to make up for Vlad and 80 fewer for Jeter. The point is, if you can find an effective platoon for 114 PA’s for Jeter, you can probably find one for 200 PA’s. The trouble with hitting guys like Jeter and Vlad down low is that they get on base, and then you have players like Alex Cora, Luis Rivas or pitchers trying to drive them in. So you may get to play them more often – and if they are outstanding defensively, that’s an added benefit – but you’re not taking full advantage of their offensive skills.
There is an additional twist. It’s easier to find a platoon outfielder than a short stop. So it may mean you have to go out and find someone like Timo Perez--a marginal player at best--but in the 2003 Strat card set, he had good OB% against righties and could bat in the 2 hole when Vlad is resting. Say you pick up Perez, you could hit him second and bat Jeter sixth. With a player like Jeter, it’s often easy to find a player like Jolbert Cabrera, who had good enough OB% versus lefties that year to maybe hit second. But his 4 e80 at short will kill you. In Jeter’s case, you may be better off batting him second, and replacing him on off days with a player who fields well but cannot hit. Just play the gloveman against weak teams.
Having an injured star is a tough road. But if you do the math, you can figure out exactly what you need to acquire. Then you just need to do some smart horse trading.