Gaudy Numbers: The Dreaded Drop Off
By David Welch - Editor at-large
05/08/2006
Every May we can take the first month of the baseball season and look at some player's especially great performance, or atrociously bad numbers, and have a little fun with the anomaly. Maybe it's a breakout year for Xavier Nady. Will Casey Blake vie for the batting title? He's hitting .378 as I'm writing this article.
Of course, we know some of the performances won't last. Maybe Nady had finally gotten his chance and will produce. But don't expect the .930 OPS (that's on-base percentage plus slugging for newbies to the site) and 39 homer pace he has set to be real come October. I doubt Blake will be silver bat material. Nor do I think Aramis Ramirez will finish the season hitting .220.
Having said all of that, there are some gaundy numbers—for better or worse—that are so dramatic in the first month that they will most likely have an extraordinary impact on a player's card for next year. They are either nearly impossible to recover from or give an unusual boost. I'm talking like Eric Chavez's April 2005. He was so bad in April and part of May that it practically doomed an otherwise good season to an OPS below .800.
Here are a few wild numbers to look at:
Brad Radke's home run total: Yuck. Radke has allowed 11 homer in 33 innings. He has been getting worse and worse for a few years now. But this slide looks ugly. He will improve upon the stats this year. But 11 homers is tough to bounce back from.
Carlos Silva's home run total: A few lockers away from Radke, control artist Silva has given up 10 big flies in 26 innings. He allowed just 25 homers in 200+ innings last year. His ERA is over 8.00 right now. He will recover from that, but good luck getting that HR total—and hence the number of diamonds on his Strat card—down to decent levels. Deal him if you can.
Matt Cain against lefty batters: Cain is getting shelled by lefties to the tune of a 1.055 OPS against. He is allowing a home run (7 so far) every 11 at bats against lefty hitters. That's in a tough park for righties, too. He'll end up with a few diamonds against lefties next year.
Brad Wilkerson's production: A move to Texas from power-sapping RFK Stadium was supposed to cure all. But his so-so 4 home runs and paltry sole stolen base say that Wilkerson may not be the premier guy we all hoped for. He'll have to step on it to lift his owner's fortunes.
Ditto for Grady Sizemore: I like this kid, too. But 3 homers and 2 steals after 138 at-bats means Sizemore will have to stoke it up to achieve the results of his 20/20-plus sophomore campaign.
Doug Davis's walks: He's issued more free passes than a horny bouncer on ladies' night. Davis has given up 29 walks in 37 innings. Last year, he gave up not quite a walk every other inning (93 in 224 IP) and this year it's been close to a walk an inning. He'll find control, but his WHIP will suffer.
Preston Wilson 's K's: Wilson has whiffed so many times (28 to be exact) that he could end up with 173 at this pace. His .640 OPS doesn't help much, either. He has hit 5 homers, however. Still, that's one bad month that will load his card with K's.
Kerry Wood's and Mark Prior's … Oh, wait, they're both hurt again.
And just to show that we're not all about bad news here at Stratogists, here are some good news numbers:
Bobby Abreu's walks: Yeah, he has always been an ob-base machine, but 34 walks in 97 at-bats puts him on pace for 170 walks and a gaudy .452 on-base percentage. Count on another good season from Bobby B.
Alex Rios's homer count: He has 6 so far after hitting 10 in 481 at bats last year. He may eventually slow down, but it looks like his long-awaited power is starting to arrive. Even with a major slowdown, he could easily belt 20 homers.
Chris Shelton's dinger tally: He's got the pop for serious power, though maybe not the 10 home runs in 115 at-bats he has. Still, this bodes well for his end-season stat line.
Jonny Gomes's everything: He has 11 homers, 26 walks and a 1.100 OPS. And I traded the pick that landed him for a reliever. Hey, it was a good reliever and I'm playoff bound. It was a young reliever. OK, Jesse Crain. Yes, I know his ERA is high enough to shave. Yeah, I screwed up. Even if Gomes cools, he looks like the real deal.