Big Busts (Not that kind of bust)
By David Welch - Editor at-large
01/22/2006
This past Major League season, baseball's steroid problem became as naked to the public as Sharon Stone in a movie that people actually pay to see. Urine tests were done. Hearings were held. Names named. Some players were even whispered about with no evidence of steroid use.
While all of this was going on, there is another phenomenon last year that can't be lost on us. Some marquee players just laid an egg over the course of 162 games. The El Busto Grande award goes to Mike Lowell, who hit about one-quarter the home runs he normally belts. Sammy Sosa could technically beat Lowell out for this very dubious distinction, but he has been in decline for four years anyway. Other notable busts: Carlos Beltran became just another hitter. Brad Wilkerson also had a power outage. The list goes on.
I can't say with legal certainty that any of these players were once steroid users, and fizzled because they were no longer needling up. There is a raft of reasons why big-name players stumble. Age, injuries, a new ballpark or change in the lineup can all affect production.
Look at the 2004 campaigns put up by Barry Zito and Jason Giambi. Zito's 2004 stinker was a fluke. Giambi's may have been steroid-related, but he was also hurt a lot. In any case, both players rebounded with very good seasons and are once again great assets to any Strat-o-Matic team. The trick is figuring out which players are bargains and which are best left on your competitor's roster.
First, let's look at Mike Lowell. He didn't just underperform, he was horrible. His defense was still good, but he suddenly became a slow version of Cesar Izturis, only at third base. After being a premier stick at the hot corner, Lowell put up a .645 OPS and his homer total dropped from 27 to eight.
Maybe he stopped taking steroids, though he has been implicated in nothing. Maybe he was suffering pains all season long and wouldn't tell anyone. Or it could be that he is just getting old. But he's only 32.
What's scary here is that Lowell's contact rate and patience were similar to the season before. So he wasn't doing anything wrong. He just stopped driving the ball hard. I expect him to rebound in the hitter-friendly confines of Fenway Park and to bounce back from his worst season.
But don't overpay. A few scouting reports say his bat speed is slowing. If you can get him cheap, he is a good pick up. But don't pay like you're getting the Lowell of 2004. Think Joe Randa with a better glove.
This next one hit me personally, since he is on a cornerstone of one of my teams. Carlos Beltran put up a .744 OPS. That's right, Rich Aurilia did have a better season. Here's a player I suggest you don't go after. Due to his age and overblown reputation, he will come with a big price tag.
Beltran has probably been overrated for a while anyway. He has put up some great power numbers, but 2005 was the first time in his career that he wasn't helped by a hitter's park. His plate discipline has never been great. He will come back, but I wouldn't expect anything much higher than an .850 OPS and around 25 home runs. That comes with speed and a great glove, but a big price to boot.
What happened to Brad Wilkerson? Here's a guy I wouldn't worry about too much. He had a handful of injuries. Homers dropped considerably, but he hit more doubles and triples than ever. He is hitting the ball hard. Consider that RFK Stadium is a tougher environment for hitters than the Big "O" was, and you have to expect that 20-something homers-not the 32 he hit in 2004-is the norm. Still a very good player.
I can't say the same for Adrian Beltre. If basic hitting stats were used as a test for steroid use, he'd have been suspended after his "bombastic" 2004 season. Beltre's .717 OPS and 19 home run performance last year is very consistent with the parade of mediocrity he has been marching for five years. I expect the beat to go on.
Then there is the downright perplexing Phil Nevin. He came off the disabled list in July and his season went from bad to worse. He hit below the Mendoza line in about 100 at-bats for Texas. That's perfectly understandable. It's hard to hit in Arlington. Oh wait. Sorry. Americaquest Field should be called Coors on the Prairie. Nevin just didn't get it done. Maybe he was still hurt or sulking from the trade. He has reportedly been working out this winter and could be a decent reclamation project. But at age 35 and given his shoulder issues, Nevin is a major gamble.
Now hear this: If another manager offers you Corey Patterson, you should pay roughly what you would pay for Jerry Hairston Jr. I thought this guy was overrated from the start, and even at age 26 he'll have a tough time trading on his potential. He makes Pedro Feliz look patient. His .348 slugging was pathetic and OPS dropped from a ton from his past mediocre levels. Sorry Corey.
I'd be more willing to take a small gamble on a youngish center fielder like Aaron Rowand, another big disappointment last year. But beware. He's another one for whom the 2004 season must raise eyebrows. He was pretty weak in 2005 with a .308 on-base and 13 homers. He can field and has some speed, and like I said, is a better option than Patterson. But I'm suspect of 28-year-old toolsy players who have shown the goods for exactly one full season.
Then we come to Sammy. Steroids? Age? Neuroses? For a guy who has fast become the Mariah Carey of Major League Baseball, his current predicament says it all. The Sporting News recently reported that his agent is talking about a deal with the Nationals, a minor league deal, that is. I wonder if his teammates on the New Orleans Zephyrs like salsa music in the clubhouse.