Draft Guide: The Best Right Handed Starting Pitchers
By Dave Welch - Editor at-large
06/30/2007
Looking to make some deals? Or just scouting the league for next year’s stars? Here are the top righty arms in the league right now measured by their performance so far this season and their future weighed in to some degree. Basically, I’m trying to tell who has a great card in the making while steering you away from a pitcher whose fortunes will tumble. Since some Strat managers have a Roman-like prejudice against lefties, here are the right handers. A list of top southpaws is coming soon.
Ranked by performance so far in 2007, with a sprinkle of future thrown in:
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Jake Peavy, Padres: Sure, Dan Haren is putting up gaudy numbers, but I still think Peavy is the top pitcher in the league right now, righty or lefty. He does it all and has returned to God-like performance after just being a fine human being on the mound last year.
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Dan Haren, A’s: Haren is having a great season and has been reliabile year-in, year-out. His K/9 keeps rising, too.
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John Lackey, Angels: I once dealt this guy for Carl Pavano because I needed Pavano’s one good card for a pennant run. I lost in the ALCS. Wouldn’t I like to reverse that deal now.
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Roy Oswalt, Astros: Oswalt is the picture of consistency and he’s doing it again this year. The HWIP is a bit high, but it’ll come down. He’s money.
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Justin Verlander, Tigers: Would easily be a few spots higher, but the guys ahead of him are just too consistent. If he avoids injury, he could top this list before his career is over.
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Ben Sheets, Brewers: Sheets is back to fanning batters and winning games. He is great and deserves a higher ranking, but staying healthy has been an issue for the past two seasons.
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Josh Beckett, Red Sox: Beckett has been terrific this year. He has allowed just 5 homers in 77 innings, making last season gopheritis look like the outlier and not the norm.
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Chien-Ming Wang, Yankees: Good ERA, a WHIP under 1.20 and a very low home run rate. That makes you forget about the low strikeout rate. There’s a lot to like about Wang.
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James Shields, Devil Rays: He has been dominant so far this year and has the stuff to keep it up. This may seem like a high ranking, but I’ll go out on a limb and say he’s worth it.
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Jeremy Bonderman, Tigers: Bondo is becoming a consistent horse. He racks up K’s, keeps the ball in the yard and still has upside.
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Aaron Harang, Reds: He’s nothing spectacular, just a guy who quietly takes the mound, whiffs nearly a batter per innings and get outs. Could be had at a bargain given that is performance-to-hype ratio is off the charts.
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Brandon Webb, Diamondbacks: Webb has been his usual terrific self. He could be ranked higher based on surface-level analysis, but he has one major flaw. Lefties hit him. He’s consistently great, but is exposed to smart platoon managers in Strat leagues. There some guy in your league who bought guys like Matt Stairs for nothing who will give Webb fits.
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Chris Young, Padres: Young is terrific. He has yet to put up 200 innings. But he might do it this year. If he starts to assume ace-like work duties, he could be a No. 1 starter.
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Carlos Zambrano, Cubs: Zambrano had a slow start, but he has been money for the past month. I predict a final card for next season that is his typical sub-1.20 WHIP with plenty of K’s. Fear not his current statline.
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John Smoltz, Braves: At age 40, Smoltz is still great. A shoulder injury has cost him a couple of games. Take him with confidence, but know that all good things must come to an end.
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Ian Snell, Pirates: Snell is swell. Being the Pirates ace is sorta like being the best ballerina in Galveston, but at 25, Snell has a mid-90s blower and looks like he’ll be a strong starter for years to come.
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Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox: Yeah, Dice-K is this low. He’s really good, as his strikeout per inning performance does attest. But he hasn’t yet lived up to the hype from Red Sox nation. Then the ERA drops well below 4.00, he’s top 10.
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Kelvim Escobar, Angels: He’s been hot this year and I think it will continue, or at least something close to it. But I still think he is overperforming his real ability. Don’t pay too much for him.
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John Maine, Mets: Maine looks like the real deal. His homers look a shade high for a pitcher who throws half his games in Shea. But he’s more than solid.
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Roy Halladay, Blue Jays: Halladay can do everything you need out of a No. 1 starter except stay healthy. He’s done that so far, but who knows? Maybe he’ll open a door and a ceiling will cave in on his head.
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Tim Hudson, Braves: His strikeout numbers are low, but so are the important measures like WHIP and ERA. Hudson is rock solid and has bounced back from last year’s disappointing campaign.
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Brad Penny, Dodgers: Penny is having a great season, but it’s been a few years since he threw more than 200 innings. That’s at least a yellow flag.
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Matt Cain, Giants: I like his success at his age. The Giants never hit for him, but maybe your Strat team will. I like his stuff and the park he throws in.
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Fausto Carmona, Indians: Would you make a Faustian bargain? Fausto has it working this season and has the stuff to be successful over the long haul.
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Felix Hernandez, Mariners: King Felix has tumbled down the scrotum pole. He disappointed last season and his 1.55 WHIP through mid-June didn’t making any owners feel better. But he is just 21 and has the stuff to be a top-shelf ace. Patience, young Skywalker.
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Curt Schilling, Red Sox: He’s down the list only because he turns 40 this year. But he is still pitching like an ace.
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Matt Morris, Giants: He isn’t exciting. But he gets outs. Just be aware that his biological clock is—tick, tick—ticking.
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Derek Lowe, Dodgers: If you look at Lowe’s career numbers, he has been the picture of inconsistency. An innings eater one year and damn near dominant the next. So far, this is one of those good years. What will happen next year? Just keep the multitude of possibilities in mind.
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Roger Clemens, Yankees: He’s down at the bottom because he has already missed one-third of the season and so you’ll get a limited card. Depending on the rules of your league, you may only get one start per playoff series. And he’s almost 45. And who knows if he’ll pitch next year. But he is Roger and he was been terrific in his first two starts.
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Greg Maddux, Padres: Another oldie but goodie. Maddux is having a fine season, helped no doubt by pitching in a pitcher’s yard like San Diego. But he’s still going strong at 41.
Honorable mentions are Jered Weaver, Boof Bonser, Tim Lincecum, Chad Gaudin, Jeremy Guthrie, and Chris Sampson.