Draft Guide: The Best Left Handed Starting Pitchers
By Dave Welch - Editor at-large
06/30/2007
First let me advise the thinking Strat manager to ditch the anti-lefty bias. In a past column here on Strat-o-gists, I dispelled the notion by crunching several seasons’ worth of real Strat league data that showed lefty starters fared no better or worse in their replays than righties.
Many managers fear using lefties because it’s just so easy for opposing managers to pick up a few cheap right-handed bats that can mash southpaws. That’s true, but it’s more the case in smaller leagues. I crunched data for a 26-team league and a 30-team league. More teams generally means more realism. Managers in 12-team leagues are playing something similar to an All-Star season anyway. All bets are off.
So if you’ve gotten over your lefty prejudice, here are the top southpaw starters. I base this on a fine blend of present and future value with a dose of injury risk measured in. Enjoy.
1. Johan Santana, Twins: What can you say? The guy is lights out. He’s easily the best lefty out there and one of the best starters in the game.
2. C.C. Sabathia, Indians: C.C. is pretty consistent. He ranges from solid to very good every year. So far, this season is one of the very good ones. This year, he’s even tougher against righties, which is good to have. The only warning is that he occasionally has one of those 1.30-plus, 4.00 or higher ERA seasons.
3. Cole Hamels, Phillies: Hamels has been terrific this season. He strikes out more than a batter per inning. The only flaw in his game is the home run rate, which as of June 30 was 19 big flies in 112 innings. But take into account that he plays in Coors East and you have a great young arm.
4. Erik Bedard, Orioles: He’s behind Hamels for two reasons. Hamels is younger and his splits are a bit more even this year. Bedard could be susceptible to the one-season, late-career Ron Gant card that destroys lefties. But Bedard is a top notch.
5. Mark Buehrle, White Sox: The guy has one lousy season last year and his value tumbles in Strat and fantasy leagues. But his 1.10 WHIP this year and nearly one homer per nine innings in a true hitter’s park says it all. Oh, and he’s still under 30 years old. He’s probably a bargain.
6. Tom Gorzelanny, Pirates: He’s pitched very well in AAAA Pittsburgh. The strikeouts aren’t that high, but that could improve. The only possible downside at this point is that he has complained about his workload. But that’s an issue only for how long he can go into games and the number of innings he racks up. It’s a good thing that someone is monitoring his pitch counts.
7. Jeff Francis, Rockies: The WHIP is a bit high, but cut him some slack for playing in Coors. He’s young and very good. His splits are too bad, either.
8. Rich Hill, Cubs: His WHIP and K/BB have both gotten better this season. The spilts are good and he has more upside. There’s a lot to like and he is on pace for a 200-inning season.
9. Andy Pettitte, Yankees: Yes, I’m ranking him higher than younger arms like D-Train and Kazmir because they’re struggling mightily and Pettitte is a horse. The strikeouts are falling year after year, but he is still tougher on righties than lefties. At 35, he should have a few more effective seasons on his arm.
10. Dontrelle Willis, Marlins: Now we get to Dontrelle. Methinks many managers overrate Willis because of his dominant 2005 season. His K/9 has remained consistent over last year’s disappointment and the doldrums he’s sailed through so far this year. The problem is the walks and homers have climbed. Still solid and only 25. He might need a trip to the Mozzone school, or something similar.
11. Scott Kazmir, Devil Rays: Every stat in his chart looks great, except that dismal walk rate. That’s the sole reason his WHIP is over 1.50 through the end of June. That’s been the story of Kazmir. I own him in a Strat and a fantasy league and rate him this high only because, at 23, he still has time to learn and regain control. It took A.J. Burnett a few years to cure walk-itis.
12. Chris Capuano, Brewers: Capuano’s only problem is consistency throughout the season. He makes quality starts, get strikeouts and keeps a decent WHIP. Playing in Milwaukee means he’ll allow homers. But he’s a solid option.
13. Ted Lilly, Cubs: He’s having a fine season so far with a 1.10 WHIP. His 8 K/9 is supported by career stats. He might get 200 innings for the first time in his career this year. He doesn’t have much more upside, but is consistent enough to be a good No. 3 or 4 starter.
14. Randy Johnson, Diamond Backs: He won’t give you a full season next Strat year, but the card should be good. He’s back to the old Big Unit. I thought he was just about done after his disappointing career in the Bronx. He isn’t, but he will be out of gas one day. And that commeth right soon.
15. Kenny Rogers, Tigers: He’s had just two starts since coming off the DL, but they have been very good. I keep waiting for the clock to strike midnight on this pumpkin, but Rogers keeps chugging along.
16. Noah Lowry, Giants: Lowry is a solid young pitcher. He doesn’t strike out a lot of hitters and his 1.42 WHIP this season is unimpressive, especially in a pitcher’s haven like San Francisco. But at 26, he still has upside.
17. Barry Zito, Giants: Why don’t I rate this guy higher? He would anchor the all-overrated staff. He’s another guy with a high WHIP and too many homers allowed (11 in 96 innings) in a park that gives him plenty of help. Zito is a solid workhorse and he is tougher on righties than lefties. But a WHIP of around 1.40 during three of the past four seasons says he doesn’t live up to the hype.
18. Tom Glavine, Mets: Another oldie but goodie. Glavine hasn’t been great, but he’s very solid. If you want a lefty and need a No. 3 starter, you could do much worse. He’s 41, so pay accordingly.
19. Sean Marshall, Cubs: Marshall has been great this year in 45 or so innings. He has good stuff and at 6’7” can get nice leverage on the ball. I’d rate him higher if not for an injury history at lower levels of the game.
20. Cliff Lee, Indians: Believe it or not, Lee anchored the rotation of one of my teams and I won a World Series. OK, I had an obscene lineup and a lights-out bullpen to save an obviously mediocre rotation. But Lee’s 2005 card was very good. What has happened? He’ll be 29 this year. Hitters may have figured him out. He’s trying to learn to throw a slider and could become more effective. Right now, though, with an ERA in the 5.00 range for the second straight year, I’d view him as a sleeper you could get on the cheap with the risk that he may not rebound to the top starter he was projected to be.
21. Scott Olsen, Marlins: He had a fine rookie season last year only to hit the common sophomore slump among young pitchers. He has potential and misses bats. But he’s too hittable and hitters find him too walkable right now. He has more upside than any of the pitchers you’ll soon be reading about.
22. Oliver Perez, Mets: Ollie Perez is having a great year. And he’ll be 26 this season. So why so low? Because when he’s bad, he’s really bad. In six Major League seasons, he’s posted and ERA near or above 6.00 three times. And he’s injury prone. As of this writing, he was missing a start due to a sore back. His up-and-down track record, injury history and occasional brilliance remind me of Omar Daal’s career. Perez has better stuff than Daal ever did, but there’s a lot of risk.
23. Jarrod Washburn, Mariners: Wahsburn once was a high flyer. He’s been mediocre to good in recent years. Washburn is a pretty good pitcher but at his age (33 very soon) there’s isn’t much upside.
24. Randy Wolf, Dodgers: Wolf is having a decent season. He’s not the sought-after starter he was before he got hurt in 2004, but he has become effective. Still, I’d need to see more this year before pronouncing him as anything more than a No. 3 starter.
25. Nate Robertson, Tigers: Robertson is a better pitcher than his 4.82 ERA through June says he is. But he did miss time because of “dead arm.” That’s a yellow flag. Still, he’s a decent lefty option and should improve this year. His first start after a stint on the D.L. was pretty good.
26. Mike Maroth, Cardinals: This junk baller has little margin for error and probably less potential for improvement. He has put up some decent seasons, but I think he’s a poor man’s Kirk Rueter. Does that excite you?
27. Joe Kennedy, A’s: He’s been marginally effective, but there’s not much here except low-budget, back-of-the-rotation stuff.
28. David Wells, Padres: He makes the list almost as a fan favorite. Every season he throws should be his last. At this point Boomer is the George Thorogood of pitchers, employing balls and gusto to overcome age and lack of overpowering stuff. He’ll give someone a decent card for a playoff run.
And one final lefty to watch is Tigers’ rookie Andrew Miller. He is just 22 and has talent and is getting a look this year. He has only 23 innings so far and doesn’t make the list. But he has a lot of potential. Technically, I should put him at No. 30 over Wells. But I’m taking a little poetic license.