What Will Jaret Do? and other high impact moves of the winter meetings
By Mike SanClemente - Managing Editor
12/18/2004
While the Winter Meetings were more about free agent signings than the traditional trade-a-minute we’ve seen in past years, there were no shortage of player moves with big Strat impact.
And unlike last week’s installment, there are some big names this time. Read on.
Mike Matheny: The big impact here will be on AJ Pierzynski, and where he ends up. It’s one thing to be a bad boy like David Wells, full of motorcycles and bulging bellies, and quite another to be Pierzynski, a “gb(SS) A” machine who openly criticized his new teammates early last year, then later was criticized himself by Giants pitchers, likely triggering his short tenure in the Bay Area.
The Giants released AJ. The free agent market for catchers is quite thin beyond Varitek, but at this somewhat late stage, his options may be restricted to just platoon roles, so his value has dropped a bit.
Danny Kolb: His move to the Braves secures at least an attempt by John Smoltz to return to the rotation. Smoltz hasn’t been in the rotation fulltime since 1999 (2000 was his transition year; he started 5 games and notched 10 saves).
The result of this trade is that Kolb’s value goes up as he joins the Cox/Mazzone pitcher’s paradise, and Smoltz’s value does as well, given that regardless of his success, his innings will increase.
But how well will Smoltz do? You could argue several paths on this one. My take is that, given:
- His age (turns 38 on May 15)
- 4 years of bullpen work, providing his arm with some rest
- Utter domination during those 4 years
- The Braves’ excellent track record with pitcher health, and
- His experience as a starter (11 full seasons),
Smoltz will spend the entire year as a starter, logging ~210 innings as the Braves are careful not to run up a high pitch count, and missing only a few turns in the rotation. I believe he will be effective though not outstanding in 2005 (WHIP around 1.25), and will see a normal starting pitcher’s decline in the ensuing 2-3 years, possibly seeing a return to the bullpen during that time depending upon his arm and the needs of the team.
There obviously is the chance that he blows up, a la Danny Graves, Jose Jimenez or other closers attempting to return to the rotation. Granted, neither of those have Smoltz’ pedigree, but the adjustment still won’t be an easy one.
Esteban Yan: Great fastball, spotty history. All I can tell you now is that he’s going into the Angels’ bullpen. What do you know about members of the Angels’ bullpen? That’s correct. Though I can come up with no empirical evidence, I’d say things are pointing up for Mr. Yan.
Pedro Martinez: There are several factors at play here, not the least of which is his alleged 90% torn labrum. Another is the Mets’ inherent ability to make pitchers better almost immediately upon their arrival. And others involve the prospect of no longer facing a DH, and lastly a change of venue after 7 years with the Red Sox.
Overall, you have to figure Pedro was going to improve upon his 2004 numbers regardless of where he ended up. Last year marked his highest HR/IP, highest hit/IP, lowest strikeout/IP, and tied for highest walk/IP rates during his Boston career. He didn’t miss a single start, which is pretty impressive for a 32 yr old pitcher who’s 5’11” and 180 lbs and throws in the low (and sometimes mid) 90’s, which means he’ll be a * starter.
Pedro is very quirky and likely wouldn’t have gone to the unforgiving, corporate Yankees for that reason, so I figure the Mets front office and coaching staff will allow him some cushion (otherwise he wouldn’t be singing their praises). But the fans may not be so forgiving should he struggle out of the gate (as most new New York city signees have learned: witness the slow starts of Giambi, ARod, Tino Martinez, Bonilla, Alomar, Benitez and others).
Given all these variables, plus his tenuous right shoulder, here is our take: Look for a strong 2005 for Pedro, ~180 innings with a 1.10 WHIP and better HR rate than last season. But if the Mets – whose bullpen is now without Mike Stanton – don’t baby his 99-pitches-per-game arm, don’t rule out a decline for a pitcher with a tender right shoulder who just turned 33. That means the Mets may look silly paying $13 million a year during his age 35 and 36 seasons.
Corey Koskie: Eric Hinske’s impending move to 1B or another team signals that he is now either a bargain, or a bust. Koskie’s value doesn’t change much, unless Toronto has plans to move him to 1B.
Chad Gaudin-Kevin Cash: As a followup to my comments on the Greg Myers signing, this trade vaults rookie Guillermo Quiroz’s value to a point higher than it was before Myers was signed. Ricciardi appears ready to roll the dice with a green rookie and a late-30’s injury-in-waiting. Cash will battle for backup time behind Toby Hall in Tampa.
On the Gaudin side, he was all the splash a year ago as a 20-yr old performing adequately at the big league level. But last year, he was everywhere; bullpen, rotation, minor leagues, & disabled list. Given his young age and history of both starting and relieving, it’s not directly clear what his short-term role will be in Toronto. However, as Toronto appears to be a much better-run organization than Chuck LaMar’s circus in Florida, I view this as a positive development for Gaudin longterm.
Russ Ortiz: Watching Ortiz pitch here in the Bay Area when he was with the Giants, I was always struck by his dedication to nibbling. He’d face the #9 hitter, the pitcher, and throw a first pitch strike, then agonizingly nibble his way to a 3-2 count before ending the AB. You can imagine what he was like when nonpitchers came to the plate.
But Ortiz benefited from being on a strong team, won a lot of games, and also was aided by pitching in PacBell Park, one of the best pitcher’s parks in the game. So few noticed, despite 1.3 and 1.33 WHIPs.
His next stop? Atlanta, home of the best pitching coach in the game, and a Furcal/Andruw SS/CF combo that saves each Brave pitcher a bundle of hits each year. So few noticed his continued mediocrity as he won 36 games in two seasons, despite WHIPs of 1.31 and 1.51.
Now the 30-yr old is on Arizona for 4 long years. I’m torn between suggesting that current Ortiz owners should “dump him today” and “dump him very early next week.”
Jaret Wright: Moving from the pitching capital of the world to a division where you’ll face the Boston and Baltimore lineups instead of the Mets’ and Marlins’ will hurt Wright, to speak nothing of his checkered injury history prior to 2004. To be fair, this boy has always been talented, and as every reader of this site loves baseball, it was very gratifying to see him put together such an outstanding season. However, many Yankee fans don’t like Stottlemyre as a pitching coach, and most of their acquisitions have therefore been more mature pitchers like Cone, Clemens, Wells, Mussina, & Key. Wright could be high-maintenance, and I’m not confident Torre & Co. have the ability to match Cox & Mazzone.
His 2005 numbers will drop off from their 2004 levels, and two bigger questions concern his innings total this year, and what the heck kind of seasons to expect in ’06 and ’07. He may courageously fight his way through 180 OK innings this season, with the potential for bigger dropoffs possible in the ensuing season or two.
Kelly Stinnett: The signing of Kelly Stinnett changed someone’s Strat value appreciably? Yes. Here’s why.
The Diamondbacks are torn between rebuilding and being good enough to make a run for it. How else to explain a team with masher Troy Glaus, who could play a lot or play a little, and who may or may not have Randy Johnson on their team the entire year?
Granted, they were a disaster last year. But if a couple youngsters pick up the slack, Ortiz eats up innings, Unit dominates, Aquino continues to save games and Glaus is a healthy monster, they could be in the wild card hunt (remembering that you only need a .500 record at the All Star break to be in the running).
So, if Arizona management believes that they can contend, they may trust a veteran catcher like Stinnett more than Koyie Hill, Robbie Hammock or Chris Snyder. No, this isn’t an earthshaking development, but Stinnett owners should be happy about this (in addition to his potential short-season monster card this year). Stinnett likely won’t be anything more than his usual mediocre self, but 300 AB from him would have value, despite his advanced age and health problems.