What Will A-Rod Get at Shortstop
By Mike SanClemente - Managing Editor
11/28/2004
Perhaps the single biggest question of this Strat offseason is what Alex Rodriguez’s shortstop rating will be. The answer to this question will illustrate more than just the abilities of one single player. It will actually reveal much about the thinking of the brain trust in Glen Head, New York.
Why?
If Strat gives ARod a weak rating at short, it means the game is tailored to deliver a precise replay of the 2004 Major League season. If ARod earns a strong fielding rating (he was a 1e8 in his last year as a regular there) then it tells us that Strat is willing to place a greater priority on using mathematics and probability to replicate a professional athlete’s abilities. It also says that Strat recognizes perhaps more than ever that many of its customers and their leagues do not try to replay the MLB season, they create their own mixed teams and go at it.
Here are the facts: He played 2 games there, 2 innings total, and was busy: in 2 chances, he recorded one putout and one assist, which was a double play grounder, and no errors. Good stats, and not surprising given that he was a 1e8 there last year, but basically too small a sample from which to draw any conclusions.
Strat’s desire is that replays truly replicate how the season was played (hence changes like the closer rating). And Strat rules say that any player must have at least one chance in order to be rated at a given position. But understand that sentence: it does not mean that everyone with at least one chance will automatically be rated.
The game company always reserves the right to break the rules – or break new ground – on occasion. Put another way, Harold Richman, not the stats, ultimately makes the final call on player ratings.
Three somewhat ground-breaking moments in my Strat lifetime help illustrate this:
- Steve Garvey’s then unheard-of e0 first base rating in the mid-80’s, necessitating an addition to the hallowed fielding chart
- Pudge’s –5 arm in the mid-90’s, the first minus-5 in a long, long time
- Bernie Williams never attaining a 1 in CF despite multiple Gold Gloves for him and World Series titles for the Yankees. It’s not that Bernie necessarily deserved the 1: it was simply groundbreaking that a Gold Glover on a WS-winning team did not get a 1.
So even if all the facts in this ARod quandary pointed to one outcome, we’d once again have to quote Pascual Perez in reference to Strat’s ratings: youneverknow.
Here, then, are the pertinent Yankee elements for the past two years:
2003
Finish: first in their division, AL champ, lost in WS
SS Jeter: 3e20
2B Soriano: 4e20
3B Ventura: 3e11
3B Boone: 2e19
2004
Finish: first in their division, lost in ALCS
SS Jeter: Gold Glove, 154 games
2B Cairo: 113 games
2B Wilson: 80 games
3B ARod: 155 games
Starting Shortstop:
Muddying up matters is Jeter’s Gold Glove. His 3 rating from 2003 is obviously bound to improve given that award, plus reports from every direction singing his defensive praises in 2004. Will Strat move him up to a 1? My guess is probably no, which moves up to a definitely no if Strat should make ARod a 1 at third base. So for now – since so much else is up in the air – let’s establish Jeter as a 2 at short.
Second base:
Cairo was a 3e10 last year for the Cardinals while Enrique Wilson was a 3e6 with New York at this position. Pushing up Cairo to a 4 would be quite a blow to NY and would almost necessitate making Jeter a 1 if they did, so it’s a fair bet to assume Cairo retains his 3 rating. Wilson is far less important, and will likely stay at a 3, but could move to a 4 and still not cause too much of a stir.
Bottom line at second base is not much should change, and therefore shouldn’t impact Jeter or ARod’s shortstop ratings much. Let’s establish Cairo and Wilson as 3s.
Third base:
All season long, ARod received plaudits from announcers and writers alike for his strong D at third. Now, I’ll be the first to tell you that announcers and writers are often some of the worst evaluators of big league talent (listen even briefly to Joe Morgan, John Kruk or Thom Brennaman for strong evidence of this).
However, ARod’s defensive stats, especially the 13 errors at a high-error position, support their claims. Also, consensus holds that Jeter had a better season at short, possibly due to ARod having good range.
My take is that ARod has a good chance of getting a 2 at third. I wouldn’t be shocked if he got a 1, but 2 is much more likely. Regardless of talent level, switching to an entirely new position likely influences Hal’s call here.
Another interesting note is that Sheffield actually fielded one ball at third base last year covering two innings and two games, and threw it into the stands against the Red Sox. If he is rated at third, it gives replay gamers slightly more flexibility to move ARod to short, and could hurt ARod’s chances of getting a good shortstop rating.
We’ll establish ARod as a 2 at third base...leaving just one area left to cover.
Pull up a chair.
Backup shortstop:
Wilson played 16 games at short in 2004 and was a 4e8 there last year, so he should return a 4 rating again this year. Cairo played 3 games at short this year, and was saddled with a 4e36 last season, so he’s a shoo-in for another 4. Felix Escalona also played more short than ARod, 4 games, but only had 8 AB so he won’t be carded.
Even with a pair of likely 4-rated backups, do the Yankees need anyone else to be rated there other than Jeter, Wilson and Cairo in order to win the division in a replay? Of course not. The biggest reason is that Jeter’s backup won’t play much, just 8 games, 5% of the season.
Even at one of the game’s most important positions, 5% isn’t much. Wilson could take care of it all of it by himself in a replay. If Wilson plays 8 full games at shortstop @ 4.0 plate appearances per game, that’s just 32 plate appearances off his 255 total, leaving him 223 to use at second with Cairo’s 378. And 4.0 plate appearances may be a bit on the high side given that he’ll bat 9th and sacrifice from time to time.
Cairo will need to spend a little time at third to spell ARod, but nevertheless, his 378 plate appearances plus Wilson’s 223 equals 601, which is enough to cover second as they’ll both bat last, sacrifice a few times, and will frequently be removed for a pinchhitter.
So the Yankees don’t need another guy to backup short. And examples cited by other websites have shown that backup shortstops in past seasons who’ve played roughly 2 innings all year have often not been rated at all. But given that we’re talking about a high-profile player on a high-profile team, and one that needs to finish in first for replay purposes, I say there is a 75% chance Strat will still give him a rating to ensure some small measure of flexibility.
ARod will not get a better rating than Jeter, so at best he’s a 2 at short. Going by pure talent, sure, he’s probably between a 1 and a 2. But ratings must also take into account, I dunno, what actually happened during the year. Smartly or not, if a team’s manager only plays you 2 innings at a given position during the season, it’s not likely you’re going to end up with a 2 fielding rating no matter what the position.
Along these lines is ARod’s e-rating. He was an e8 last year. Based purely on 2 innings this year, he’d be an e88, but an e rating that high is unlikely (key word there, “unlikely”…trying to outsmart Hal isn’t always a good idea. He could spring a 3e88 on us!). I believe his e rating will fall somewhere in the middle between those two extremes.
The O’Sheffield Factor
Sheffield is a wild card here. With no Sheffield 3B rating, it’s hard to play ARod over Jeter at short for more than just a handful of games, because there is no good alternative at third base (Cairo’s 4 with a high E is the only option, which then requires Wilson at second base).
But if Sheff is indeed rated there, even with a nasty rating like 5e88, you gain some flexibility to insert an extra LH bat into the lineup for either entire games or for a few innings to start a game and get more offense. Sheff goes to third, and ARod to short, opening up RF.
This means you could play Bernie, Lofton and Sierra at the same time, with Lofton in CF and Bernie moving to RF, or Giambi, Clark and Sierra at the same time, with Sierra in RF. In each case, Jeter’s righty bat is replaced by a lefty swinger, with a dropoff in defense at 3B and possibly RF and SS as well. These aren’t earth-shattering lineup changes here, but enough to make this equation even cloudier than it already is.
PREDICTION:
Overall my thinking is that Strat will balances ARod’s true natural abilities with what actually happened on the field. The fact that New York needs to repeat in a replay is almost moot, only because Jeter had such a good year at the position anyway, and played so much. If he’d missed 25 games, or turned in a subpar year with the glove or bat, then sure, ARod could make a strong impact by being rated well at short.
But given that Jeter had an excellent season on both sides of the ball, even if ARod’s given the same SS rating as Jeter, what are you going to do? For games upon more games gleefully sub in Enrique Wilson or Sheffield at third, put ARod at short and stick Jeter’s butt on the bench? No.
Strat must also recognize that ARod’s value will rise or fall to a much greater extent as a member of the many mixed-player leagues out there than it will as a member of the Yankees. A good SS rating for him will mean that most teams would play him at short, slightly thinning the talent pool at third base while providing a mild surplus to the overall talent at the SS position. These factors further work against ARod getting a good rating at short.
Given all the evidence, and Strat’s traditional desire to engineer a replay of the season, I’ll stick my neck out a bit and say that ARod will get a 3e30 at shortstop.
If you have feedback on this article, email Mike at Mike@Stratogists.com.