Rookie Draft Winners & Losers
By Mike SanClemente - Managing Editor
02/24/2005
Most of the Stratogist staff plays in the Tradewater II baseball league, a full-retention, 26-team PBM league entering our 22nd season. We recently had our rookie draft, headquartered out of Las Vegas. Dave Welch has written on the talent plateaus found in the draft (dropoffs in talent that are important to recognize), and now I’ll comment on which individual players were drafted higher or lower than expected.
Draft Winners
These players, if they had any idea that such a thing as Stratomatic even exists, might be somewhat happy because they were picked higher than our staff expected. Of course, like William Shatner’s act on Saturday Night Live about 15 years ago, maybe instead they’ll just be sorry for us! Couldn’t blame them. But back to your league for a second: if you can convince your fellow managers to pick up one of these guys, you might be able to swap picks with someone willing to pay extra for a possibly overrated asset:
Adam Laroche. We felt he’d be solid, around #20, but perhaps the pervasiveness of the Braves on cable TV triggered his pick at #14. It still might turn out OK, but it’s still a bit higher than a guy whose upside is Mark Grace.
Russ Adams. #15 instead of late twenties. This club had few other draft picks and doesn’t trade much, and needed a future fulltime SS.
Matt Holliday. #20 instead of 37. Fantasy leaguers love Colorado hitters, perhaps that angle was in play here.
Ryan Madson. #21 instead of 41, likely due to recent rumors that he’ll be the 5th starter in Philly.
Yadier Molina. #26 instead of 66. Years ago, would you have drafted Mike Matheny late in the first round if you knew he’d turn out to be like he is? Maybe so, but Molina’s offense will be, well, Molinaesque and likely no better. Larussa is a former catcher who loves catch-and-throw guys. But Hal likes players of all types who can hit, and this is way early for Yadier – because there is no guarantee he’ll turn out like Matheny.
Luke Hudson. #46 instead of early 90’s, drafted by a contender likely due to his good starter card.
Jason Frasor. Down goes Frasor! Down goes Frasor! Ok, he was actually drafted several spots ahead of our projected mid-90’s slot. But I had to find a way to work Howard Cosell into this piece.
Draft Losers
These players fell lower in the draft than we expected; in other words, if you give any credence to our expertise, these guys were bargains in our league and might be the same in yours. Keep a look out for these opportunities:
Scott Hairston. Projected by us to be a teen pick (between 11 and 20), his stock fell in the eyes of most of Tradewater, and I was able to nab him at number 31. He might even start the year in the minors, but that shouldn’t bother you. He’ll hit, even if it’s in the OF.
Kaz Matsui. Also projected in the second ten, he dropped a bit to #23, probably due to his poor defensive ratings. Someone this talented, and still just 30, you’d think will adjust to his new surroundings and culture in his second year. I mean, how well would you do at your current job in your first year if you were given a new set of co-workers, none of whom spoke your language, and you were doing it in Japan? Changing playing surfaces from turf to real grass might be like you moving from your PC to a Mac, then being asked to be productive from day One.
Daniel Cabrera. We pegged him around 20, and was actually picked at #32. Why? Perhaps a further look at his BB/K ratios gave folks pause. In a large sample, he didn’t control the strike zone – the strike zone controlled him. Hopefully he won’t get Brandon Larson disease, fabulous in the minors but problematic in the bigs.
Noah Lowry. Good card, solid # of innings, great pitching environment…he went 30th instead of early 20’s. Not a big deal, but he did slip a bit.
Terrmel Sledge. #42 instead of late twenties, dropping possibly due to the cramped Montreal outfield. We thought he’d go higher to a contender needing a fulltime, productive OF, but that didn’t happen.
Ryan Wagner. #38 instead of late twenties, likely due to injury concerns.
Adrian Gonzalez. #48 instead of early thirties. In retrospect we may have overvalued him: he is still young, but 12 homers in a full season in AAA from a 1B?
3 OUTS TO GO
This article focuses on the top players in the draft. Obviously once you get past the top 30 or 40, there is a greater disparity in where a player may fall because the players are closer in talent. So I will close with a few players whose stock – in my mind – rose quite a bit during the draft. These folks weren’t necessarily picked higher than expected, but if I had more picks, they definitely would have gone sooner than we first thought.
As our draft began to thin out in the middle of the second round, these players emerged, in my eyes, as the best of the rest:
Jose Castillo, 2B, Pirates. Sure, McClendon’s a bizarre manager, but eventually Castillo should beat out Bobby Hill for the job due to similarly lackluster offense and Castillo’s superior defense, a 2 as a rookie. He could develop into a Luis Rivas without the speed and with a bit more power, not a bad choice for the middle of the second round of most drafts. Pittsburgh, oddly, has about a hundred outfielders and if they play well in Florida, but Mackowiak plays well too, Mackowiak may force his way into the 3B picture, which muddles things further for Castillo. My guess is that Freddy Sanchez will post a solid season for Pittsburgh and may take time away from Castillo, but if they hold 3B for Sanchez, Castillo’s PT should be home free.
Jorge Cantu, UT, D Rays. The next Jeff Kent, or a bust? Horrible defensively with no position to call home, and possibly blocked by Tampa’s veteran-signing frenzy (Robbie Alomar, Alex Gonzalez). Question is, will he continue to be the absolute masher at the plate that he showed in 2004, or the dysfunctional hitter who played 2 ½ full seasons at AA Orlando without a whiff of improvement? If you fall in love with his 2004 numbers – which is easy to do, they’re pretty incredible when you add it all up – he might be just right for you in the late 2nd round.
Denny Bautista, P, KC. At this stage in the draft, everyone’s got something wrong. Claussen, not so good since TJ surgery. Bedard, injury prone as well. Daniel Cabrera, bad BB/K ratios. Wagner, injuries. Madson, not worth it if he remains just a reliever. Old but good relievers (Otsuka, Almanzar, etc.), well, old. Cordero would have been a good choice here but I went with a guy they say could be as good as Pedro. Nothing is a guarantee at this stage in the draft, but I was willing to take a chance. If he’s a bust, all I’ve sacrificed is the 34th pick in the draft, and my upside is quite high.