Done? An Early-Season Look at Players Whose Value May Plummet
By Mike SanClemente - Managing Editor
05/07/2006
I found it funny last year that a player with strong stats over the past several prior years was considered by many to be “done,” as in permanently declined in skill with no hope of resurrection, after a decidedly poor 2006.
Indeed, in our quick-reaction, A.D.D., everything-instant society (much of it in the baseball world fueled by the “what have you done for me this week” approach required to succeed in fantasy baseball), people tend to make snap judgments about everyone from Jason Giambi’s early-season troubles last year to Prince Fielder’s 0 for 11 start this season (after which he’s hit .370, thank you).
So who is this player that I’m referring to? Here are his stats for the seasons 2000 through 2005, plus this year:
AB Avg OBP Slug Age
Yr 1 508 270 344 474 26
Yr 2 551 283 340 448 27
Yr 3 597 276 346 471 28
Yr 4 492 276 350 530 29
Yr 5 598 293 365 505 30
Yr 6 500 236 298 360 31
This year:
105 343 407 959 32
No, I’m not going to tell you his name yet. That will have to wait. In the meantime, however, I’ll give you a few names of players who, in this first week of May, need to turn things around in order to preserve their Strat value.
Last year, early in the season, I looked at Kevin Brown and Tom Glavine as two pitchers needing significant changes to stay employed in the majors. Obviously one did change, while the other did not. With the sample size police trying to chase me down at top speeds – I mean, most hitters don’t even have a hundred at bats yet – I’ll nevertheless run down a few guys in the AL who are at risk this year:
Bruce Chen – returning to his former value with 11 HR in 30 innings so far.
JT Snow – as a former San Francisco resident, I can’t tell you how overrated he was with the glove the past few years. His defense has been declining, and other than one “where did THIS come from?” season to resurrect his career a few years back, he’s been on the decline for some time.
David Wells – but something tells me that by mid-summer, he’ll have racked up at least a few quality starts, and if he wants to pitch next year, he’ll have a job even if he tanks in 2006.
Paul Byrd – control is his calling card, and even that is failing him this year. 7.11 ERA, 11 walks in 31 innings (which for him is a lot).
Pudge Rodriguez – done? No, no, he’s an exception here. He’s not done, it’s just clear that he’s on a low-walk, no-more-power path despite his .315 avg in 2006.
Doug Mientkiewicz – Hasn’t been a star lately anyway, but some folks were waiting for a possible return to decency based on injury recovery. 640 OPS so far this year prompted Justin Huber’s recent callup. He (DM) could finish the year with 200 AB and 3 HR.
Joe Mays, Mark Redman – Mays has been asked to hit the minors, and Redman has struggled as well.
Edgardo Alfonzo – those looming back problems from a few years ago appear very, very legit.
Rondell White – no explanation for a 171 slugging and 157 OBP in his first 105 ABs. Zero walks, 22 Ks during that time.
Alex Rodriguez - .260 batting average, are you kidding? Actually I am, this guy is still outstanding. If your league allows trading right now, make a move for the best player in baseball.
Jason Kendall – years of being an ironman at catcher are wearing him out, despite a 358 OBP. Years of W power lie ahead of him, and in Oakland, what’s left of his speed will hardly be used. Truth be told, however, any catcher with even decent offense and 400 AB still has a good bit of value (just ask Mike Lieberthal owners….)
Esteban Loaiza – get him now and be patient. Every couple years he busts out with an unlikely season, and he still has time to turn around this year.
So, who was the player I was referring to earlier, whom everyone wrote off as no longer valuable after one poor season followed six years of solid production?
