Book Review
2005 Bill James Handbook
By Mike SanClemente - Managing Editor
09/26/2005
The man who provided the inspiration for the front-office mindsets of the A's, Red Sox, Dodgers, and to a lesser extent Yankees, Blue Jays and Cardinals is Bill James, whose seminal work in the 1980's has given rise to a new wave of thinking in baseball. And each year, thank goodness he publishes the Bill James Handbook, because for the past ten or so off-seasons, I've looked forward to reading it as much as any book out there.
BACK IN THE DAY
My favorite memory of the Bill James Handbook came in 2000, before it was published by Baseball Info Solutions (and distributed by ACTA Sports). It was known then as the STATS Inc. Major League Handbook, and I'd predictably ordered one as soon as it came available. It was due to ship in November. But my friend and current Stratogist Karl Farmer also bought me one for my late October birthday, so I had two coming my way.
In early November, enduring an unenjoyable time at my then-employer, my still-good friend Rick Speciale dropped by San Francisco to visit me. A weekend trip was planned to Yosemite, and as we departed at 6pm that Friday, I swung by my mailbox one last time. Sure enough, two copies of the Handbook had been delivered that morning. Rick had never seen one before, but the next night, after a day of hiking, we spent hour upon hour in the Yosemite lodge, oblivious to the patrons and fireplace nearby, two stat freaks enjoying the fruits of Bill James' labor. Rick was hooked, joining me in that capacity.
These days, James continues to refine his work. While the 2006 Handbook is due out November 1, this review looks at the currently available 2005 edition.
OLD STANDBYS
Every year readers enjoy the section on career player projections, which shows that Albert Pujols has the best chance to break Pete Rose's career hits record (2%!), or that Barry Bonds entering this year had a 78% chance of reaching 755 homers. It will be interesting to see how far many of these projections fall in next year's book, given the various troubles Palmeiro, Sosa and Bonds have endured this year.
One of my favorite sections is the manager record. Basically, I enjoy anything that provides me further tangible evidence that Dusty Baker is unable to run a pitching staff. In 2004, Mr. Baker tied for the lead in the majors with 16 Long Outings, or games where his starter threw more than 120 pitches. With young arms like Zambrano, Prior and Wood, Dusty should be closer to leading the league in fewest Long Outings, but instead he keeps revving them at high speeds. Additionally, Felipe “Reliever Burnout” Alou made a stunning five hundred twenty one relief changes in 2004; no wonder his club imploded in the final weekend of the season, when nearly every reliever on his team was sore-armed and still making appearances in 3, 4, even 5 consecutive games.
Lastly, Boston's acquisitions last summer sought to bring better defense to the team, and sure enough, Terry Francona led the AL with 58 defensive substitutions. A portion of this is likely due to the Sox' good record, as you certainly don't need to make as many defensive changes when you're behind entering the 9th, but these statistics provide another good way to compare managers.
The bulk of the book, however, is devoted to the year-by-year record of everyone who played one big league game last year, and even a few who didn't. All 2005 activity is chronicled, whether in the bigs or the minors. However, space is tight, and the Handbook only provides complete minor league histories for players who've appeared in fewer than 3 different calendar years in the majors.
Unfortunately, this means we only get one year of minor league info on Tony Torcato, who appeared in just five games for the big league Giants in 2002, just fourteen in 2003, and just thirteen in 2004. One of my few pet peeves is this policy; Torcato's 36 at bats over three different calendar seasons – plus his single season of minor league data – penalize the reader, and don't give us a good idea of what kind of player he is. I'd happily pay another five dollars for the book if these restrictions were loosened somewhat to enable more detailed minor league insights. Minimums of 400 AB and 100 IP would work well.
But fret not. With this book, turn to nearly any page, and you are at risk of being held instantly spellbound (these distractions explain, in part, why this review is coming to you so late! There is essentially no way to ever say that you are “done” with this book). Every year, the book gives complete lefty-righty data for every pitcher and hitter, and a great section that follows: an expanded Leaders section, showing everything from Saves (leader: Mo Rivera) to Tough Saves (John Smoltz), from GIDP % (Jason Werth, 1%!) to Pitches Per Plate Appearance (Abreu and Wilkerson), from Lowest % Fastballs (Tim Wakefield) to Pitches With 100+ Velocity (Kyle Farnsworth in a landslide).
NEW ADDITIONS
One new feature is the injury prediction piece, an interesting way to look at who might get injured, and how, in the following season. According to the book, Sandy Alomar Jr. had a 14.9% chance of developing a knee injury during the 2005 season, Brad Ausmus a 2.3% chance of breaking a finger, and Brad Penny a 7.9% chance of developing an arm injury.
Perhaps the biggest new addition, however, is James' Team Efficiency metric and the essay to explain it. Essentially, he compares how many runs a team actually scored (Runs) with how many runs it should have created based on the individual achievements of its hitters (Runs Created). Oddly, in 2004, the Yankees “should” have only won 92 games, but were so hugely efficient in driving in the runners who got on base that they won over a hundred games. On the flip side, the Red Sox weren't efficient, and won 98 games, but “should” have won 106.
In other words, maybe the Yankees' record-setting October collapse last year wasn't such a big surprise after all, given that by James' calculations, they should have finished fourteen games behind the BoSox in the AL East.
And while you might not agree with my statement, you should at least give James' calculations the benefit of the doubt. He's certainly earned that right.
Purchase the book via ACTA Sports: http://www.actasports.com/
Send comments to Mike: mike@stratogists.com.