Top-10 Rookies from the 2009 season
By Brendan Roberts - Contributing Writer
12/13/2009
Brendan Roberts is a freelance writer based out of St. Louis. He has written for Sporting News and MLB Publications, among other media outlets.
Baseball players are like cars.
I know, I know, I really shouldn't compare human beings to inanimate objects, but just think about it: There are so many different variables in a car, just like in baseball players. I mean, you have big, powerful pickup trucks, which can pack a punch but wouldn't necessarily do well at the "24 Hours of Le Mans." Sounds like a slugger to me. You have sports cars that move around real well, but aren't meant for rugged off-road work or towing things. Base-stealers, perhaps? You have compact cars (light-hitting middle infielders?), minivans (middle relievers?), luxury cars ("can't-miss" prospects with a high price tag?), Jeeps (catchers), SUVs (corner infielders), not to mention cars that shouldn't be overworked for fear they could break down (young starting pitchers), cars that are nothing special but have a low cost and good safety ratings (defensive-minded position players), cars than can go fast and others that can't ... I'll stop there, before I beat the point to a bloody pulp. Ya know, kinda like opposing hitters do to Braden Looper fastballs.
Anyway, you get what I'm saying, right? There are so many different facets in a baseball player, and sometimes it's like choosing between a nice luxury car and a sporty hot rod. You could see either one of them shimmering sweetly in your garage. That's why choosing just 10 can be difficult. The gang at Stratogists has sent me to a new car lot and asked me to pick 10 cars. I want 'em all!
Alas, I (and we) can't choose them all. In Strat-O-Matic rookie drafts, we get just one of the top guys -- just as anybody who isn't a professional athlete or internet millionaire must choose just one car -- and we have to make the most of it. So in my mind, you look for the players who don't have just 1-2 skills, but many. The sedan with a hemi, or the sports car with four doors and plenty of leg room, if you will. The pitchers who can give you quality innings, lots of ‘em. The hitters who can get on base and also play adequate defense. And most of all, the players who aren't just one-year plays, but someone you can count on for years to come.
These are the players who immediately become a factor on your team. These are the players who make you feel that whatever horrible things you did (or that happened to you) were worth it because you gained something from it. These are the players who give you a nice bargaining chip if there are several holes to fill on your team, rather than just one. These are ... my top-10 rookies. Enjoy!
Top 10 Rookies
NOTE: Veteran pitchers Chris Carpenter and Yovani Gallardo, who returned in 2009 after missing all of 2008 because of injuries, are not included in the top 10 because they don't qualify as rookies in many leagues and also because they're more known commodities. But if they are eligible in your league, Gallardo likely would slot in about No. 4, and Carpenter would check in at No. 9 or 10.
1) Tommy Hanson, SP, Braves: There's a story that has made the rounds about hoops superstar LeBron James the year before he was drafted first overall by the Cleveland Cavaliers. At an All-Star competition featuring James, who was not a lock as the first overall pick, a few NBA scouts showed up to watch him. These scouts were NOT employed by the Cavaliers; they were looking at the possibility he'd fall to their teams' draft slots, ranging anywhere from No. 4 to No. 10 overall. Not unexpectedly, James played well from the get-go. Late in the first quarter, as the legend goes, he made a great play on defense to get the ball, weaved through defenders heading back the other direction, and then finished it with a hellacious, flying slam over a defender. After a slight pause, a few of those aforementioned NBA scouts slammed their notebooks shut and walked away, all but conceding that scouting a player that had no chance of falling to them was a waste of their time.
Where am I going with this? Well, I'm not a professional baseball scout, mind you, but Hanson is one of the few players I've done that with. Here's me opening my notebook while watching Hanson pitch in a spring training game prior to the 2009 season. A good 15-20 pitches in, here's me closing it. I'd seen all I needed to see. All his stuff was wicked good, every swing on him was defensive, and the kid looked like an absolute hulk on the mound. Oh, and he had control problems that day and gave up at least three runs, if memory serves.
The Braves did the right thing by waiting till June to call up their prized prospect. As such, he had established a rhythm before getting the call, and it helped him immediately. Sure, he showed jitters, which in his case means control problems. But consider this: After walking 15 batters in his first 23 major league innings, he walked just 31 in his final 104 2/3 innings to close out the season. How many K's after that spell? An even 100.
Those who draft Hanson get a card with a 1.18 WHIP, a .225 BAA and a respectably low home run rate. He did struggle a bit with his control versus lefty hitters, but that's nit-picking. Young pitchers can carry an inherent risk, but the bottom line here is that Hanson is a 23-year-old with Cy Young stuff, a natural delivery that shouldn't lead to arm problems, and an organization that has taken good care of him. Draft him, and call him your ace for years to come.
Comparable ceiling: John Smoltz in his prime
Comparable floor: A.J. Burnett 2009
2) Matt Wieters, C, Orioles: The immediate returns weren't quite as sterling as projected for the "next Chosen One," but we saw enough of him to see that the player the scouts project him to be is in there somewhere.
I think I know why he struggled initially, and it had nothing to do with his skills. It's just too much to throw a 23-year-old rookie catcher into a starting lineup and expect him to hit right away. No matter how successful he was in the minors or in college, there's just too much to learn, and the level of preparation and awareness kicks to a whole new level. It was too much for even Wieters.
There are two types of rookies: the rah-rah, gritty type, and the quiet, reflective, take-it-all-in type. Wieters is the latter. He didn't jump into the mix hard-nosed and fret when he didn't hit. He was patient. He asked questions. He looked over scouting notes and watched game film. He already had the talent; he just needed to learn the players and nuances of the big leagues. He did, eventually, showing improved skills and better game-calling behind the plate as the season wore on, and batting .301 in the second half of the season.
Just wait till you see what this kid will next year and the years beyond. Behind the plate, although it's not talked about much, he has a very strong arm, one that has minus-2 capabilities in Strat. His range and E ratings won't be outstanding, but he'll be at least adequate enough behind the plate that you won't even need to provide a late-inning defensive replacement for him. Offensively, there's not much to quibble with. He will be a perennial Silver Slugger hitter, providing .310ish average and maybe 20-25 homers. He's a switch hitter (bet you can't name three switch-hitting catchers ... and take your time trying), and his swing looks equally smooth from both sides. He's massive, and has gap power or more. He knows how to be patient at the plate, and has a good idea. He is quickly improving at hitting breaking stuff once he learns the pitchers.
The only reason Wieters isn't No. 1 is because in this win-now society, Strat owners often want instant gratification. And with a meager .412 slugging mark carrying over from 2009, only .358 versus lefties, those who draft him likely will have to wait a year before they can get that instant gratification, unlike with Hanson. But when it comes to future talent, there's nobody better. Not even Hanson.
Comparable ceiling: Mike Piazza
Comparable floor: A.J. Pierzynski
3) David Price, P, Rays: Before there was Stephen Strasburg, there was David Price. Price was labeled a "can't-miss" starting pitcher the moment he was selected first overall in the 2007 draft, and though there have been a few bumps along his developmental path, I like him every bit as much now as I did then.
He's a massive lefty pitcher who throws in the mid-90s with a biting slider and a nasty disposition. Those players don't grow on trees. In fact, I can think of only three in recent years: Randy Johnson, CC Sabathia and Francisco Liriano. Not bad company, considering Liriano's dominance before TJ surgery. And like those three, Price has good makeup; he's not a million-dollar arm with a 10-cent head. The kid knows how to pitch, and is learning big-league hitters, not unlike Wieters above. He's in the majors for good and now at age 24 with 142-plus innings under his belt, he's ready to take the next step to greatness. I think that will be a solid No. 2 starter level in 2010, with ace stuff in 2011 and an All-Star bid in 2012.
Unfortunately, that "down-the-road" plan is what you'd be drafting him for, because his card from '09 won't be too good. He walked almost four batters per nine innings and ended with a 1.35 WHIP. Even more bothersome is his 17 home runs allowed in 128 innings, 16 of which were hit by righty hitters. Opponents will load up their lineups with righties who have patience and power; you have to know that.
But the future is the reason you want this kid. Speaking from experience, the comfort of having a dominant lefty in one of the top two spots in a Strat rotation is priceless. It does so many things for your team, and gives you variables to play around with. If you're playing for success not next season, but the season thereafter, and there's a glaring hole for a lefty starter, I don't see how you can let Price get by you.
Comparable ceiling: CC Sabathia
Comparable floor: Jonathan Sanchez
4) Colby Rasmus, OF, Cardinals: I'm probably on my own ranking him this high. After all, he just put in a full season, and seemed to have plenty of holes in his offensive game. But I saw all I needed to see to believe he's a future All-Star, with as much all-around talent as all but a handful of players in the game.
First of all, his demeanor is about as calm and collected as any rookie you'll see. I don't know if the kid plays poker, but I'm sure he'd be good at it if he did. He is reaction-less most of the time, and that impressed his coaching staff as much as anyone else. Big-league hitters will tell you they "give away" many at-bats during the year because they weren't properly motivated, in the right mindset, focused, etc. Rasmus gives away very few; he always goes up there with a plan, and he executes it well.
Granted, any young hitter who actually has a plan is a rarity in itself, and I think that's why I like Rasmus so much offensively. He's going to walk a lot in future years, and be more selective on breaking stuff, which will lead to better power numbers. For now, his owners will have to play him in a platoon role -- he was awful versus lefties -- and live with his .251 batting average. But he will grow in leaps and bounds, and these numbers will look like an anomaly three years from now.
But his offense is only half the story; his unheralded defense is what has me most impressed. The Cardinals had a center fielder named Edmonds who held his own out there, but in my opinion, Rasmus will be as close to Edmonds-esque as anybody I could have imagined. He maybe doesn't have the flare for the dramatic, but watching him take those long strides into the gap after a fly ball is a thing of beauty.
Maybe not like a cheetah, but more like a greyhound. He's lean and athletic, and his speed doesn't translate as well for stealing bases because of those long strides, but he's the total package defensively. We're talking a "1" range factor with a low E rating and a minus arm. If Strat doesn't realize it now, they will soon enough. And in your case, if he doesn't help you win now, he will soon enough.
Comparable ceiling: J.D. Drew in his best years
Comparable floor: J.D. Drew in his worst (but healthy) years
5) Rick Porcello, SP, Tigers: Maybe it's because of his savvy and mound presence, but Porcello was treated like a veteran by both his coaching staff and critics alike. The Tigers did a wonderful job limiting his workload early and keeping him fresh, but they pitted him in tough pitching matchups all season, and he didn't seem to be forced to pitch around anyone. Meanwhile, the critics complained about his lack of an out pitch and thus strikeout ability.
But that's just it. Think about most highly touted pitchers -- Porcello was a first-round pick -- just called up from the minors. What do they try to do? They try to blow it by hitters, which only leads to inefficient pitch counts, high walk rates and big innings for offenses. Porcello was just the opposite. He DOES have the stuff to be dominant, but he focused more on being a pitcher and being efficient with his stuff. Really it's quite impressive that he could put up the numbers he did with just a 4.69 K/9 rate.
We expected Josh Beckett Jr., and because we didn't get him, we felt Porcello fell short. You know who we got? Roy Halladay Jr. Porcello can throw in the mid-90s with a heavy two-seamer that acts like a sinker, a good changeup and a developing curveball. His stuff isn't made for strikeouts; it's made for outs.
Porcello will be very good, and good soon. Most people can't argue with that; he has the upside of a staff ace. The question here is whether the K's will improve. I believe they will, which is why I think he's ranked this high. I think he'll be more Halladay than, say, Derek Lowe. But let's be honest. If you're drafting this high, either of those guys probably sounds good to you right about now.
Comparable ceiling: Roy Halladay
Comparable floor: Joel Pineiro
6) Andrew Bailey, RP, A's: Another guy I'm higher than others, perhaps, and I'll admit his numbers from this season -- more about that in a moment -- are a big part of that. But I also think Bailey has a string of great relief years ahead of him.
Since most of you couldn't pick out Bailey if he walked up to you with an A's cap and a "property of Wagner College athletic department" t-shirt on, I'll go ahead and give you the quick synopsis. He was a fine starter at Wagner, at least until he underwent Tommy John surgery. He bounced back nicely, albeit it perhaps with a different throwing motion, and the A's took him in the 6th round. After kicking around and showing only glimpses of success as a starter, the A's moved him to the bullpen, where he flourished. He scrapped the pitches that weren't working, and in the process, he developed a pitch that would define him as a pitcher: a cut fastball.
That thing is vicious. He doesn't throw it as hard as Mariano Rivera, but it has a similar effect: Righties swing and miss on it, and lefties are sawed off and break their bats. And because Bailey throws a little across his body, the actual trajectory of the ball is tough to read. This cutter is good enough to build a nice career with, as long as he can keep locating it and throwing it in the 92-93 mph range. Its bite on lefties actually made him better against that side than against righties in 2009, which isn't a surprise. And because he was brought up as a starter, he's the type of closer who could go more than an inning to get a save, which makes him even more of an asset because his owners will get more innings to work with.
But about that card from 2009. In a word, "Wow." Jonathan Broxton was the only pitcher in baseball with more than 60 innings to have a better batting-average-against than Bailey's .167 mark, and Bailey led all major league pitchers with a .228 OBP against. He also posted a 9.83 K/9 ratio and was third in innings pitched (83 1/3) among all major league pitchers who didn't start a game. Get this: Of his 68 appearances, only once did he not pitch a full inning, and in 22 of them, he worked more than a full inning.
Impressive indeed, and while we shouldn't expect him to match those numbers, he should be in for a string of fine seasons as a closer.
Comparable ceiling: Mariano Rivera (he said, perhaps ambitiously)
Comparable floor: Jason Isringhausen in his mediocre years
7) Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pirates: The scouting report on McCutchen seems to have changed by the month, and it's tough to get a gauge on what his true upside is. First he profiled as a five-tool prospect. Then after showing some pop early in his minor league career, scouts saw him being a future No. 3 hitter. Then he hit just nine homers and stole 34 bases in Triple-A last year, and seemed to have quit filling out physically, so scouts labeled him a leadoff hitter.
Then he arrived in the majors. Turns out he's all those things.
McCutchen proved to be a quick study, and it seems all he was missing in minor league stints was the proper motivation to show what he can do, because McCutchen showed the five-tool skills he was said to have in the first place. OK, maybe four. His arm isn't that strong. But he showed good power and patience at the plate, especially considering he was just 22 years old.
In fact, if you were to project out his 108 games played to, say, 154 games, his numbers would be: 37 doubles, 13 triples, 17 homers, 77 walks and 31 steals. Um, not bad. And again, he's young (now only 23), and a good defensive center fielder.
Are you going to get numbers like that over a full season? Probably not, because now that the book is out on him, he'll get fewer good pitches to hit, especially if the Pirates continue to struggle. But he's a solid all-around center fielder, and someone you'd be proud to have on your team.
Comparable ceiling: Matt Kemp
Comparable floor: Nate McLouth 2009
8) Gordon Beckham, 3B, White Sox: It means something when a player gets less than 200 minor league at-bats before being called up for good. And the White Sox even considered keeping Beckham on the big-league roster coming out of spring training.
Beckham, like most of the players on this list, is wise beyond his years. The eighth-overall pick in the 2008 draft (out of the University of Georgia), Beckham was seen as a player with a good enough glove to play shortstop and the bat to play third base. Because Alexei Ramirez's move to shortstop went OK, he moved to third base, a move that might or might not be permanent.
What he brings more than many of the names on this list is a proven track record as both a hitter and an all-around athlete. His dad was a quarterback at South Carolina, and Beckham was offered a scholarship to play quarterback at the Air Force Academy. He went on to star at Georgia, setting the school's single-season home run record (with 28) and career home run record (53). And he hit at key moments, hitting .474 with five homers and 20 RBIs in 14 NCAA tournament games.
When he was called up by the Sox, he was baffled at first, not knowing the opposing pitchers. He got just two hits in 28 at-bats before it finally clicked. The numbers thereafter: .287 average, 14 homers, 63 RBIs in just 350 at-bats.
There's plenty more where that came from. Beckham will provide power, a solid average, and he'll be a solid third baseman. And his owners will get both production from him from this Strat season, and years to come.
I hemmed and hawed about putting him higher on this list, and originally had him in the top 5. So why did I move him down? Because of the plethora of solid third baseman there are in the game right now. Seriously, look around the league, and there is either a steady or high-upside player with just about every team. And even the ones that aren't elite do have some fantastic qualities (such as Pedro Feliz's solid defense and Brandon Inge's power). So my guess is the demand for third baseman, is lower than every other position except first base. The Sox are talking about moving him to second base, which would boost his value. Keep tabs on the situation in the offseason and see where they play him. Since he has even played short in the past, he could be carded in multiple positions.
Comparable ceiling: Evan Longoria
Comparable floor: Joe Crede
9) Dexter Fowler, OF, Rockies: Center fielders with four-plus tools must be plentiful these days, because here's another one.
When you look at Fowler's 2009 numbers, you see a player with little power, a .266 average, a high K rate, average defensive numbers (zone ratings, etc.) and 10 times caught stealing. But when you look beyond the numbers, it paints a different picture. And the biggest number is this: Fowler is 23.
At that precocious age, he hit 29 doubles and 10 triples in just 433 at-bats. Coors-Field aided? Not really, in the case of doubles and triples (although his batting average was 58 points better at home than on the road). He walked 67 times, which represented a better walk rate than such players as Chase Utley, Justin Morneau and Joey Votto, and the 24th-best mark in the majors among qualified candidates. He stole 27 bases, 20 of which came in the first half before he started to battle some nicks that slowed him down.
But it's the intangibles that make Fowler extraordinary. To the man, everybody describes him as one of the more pleasant people in baseball to be around, a great clubhouse presence. ... He's 6-foor-4 and hasn't begun to fill out (he's 185 pounds). And scouts project his lanky build will fill out the right way, not with weight that will slow him down. ... He's a switch hitter, and not weak from either side ... The kid is a tremendous athlete. How good? He was recruited to play college basketball -- at Harvard.
In his prime, which will be soon, Fowler will be a .290-.300 hitter, with 40 doubles, 15 triples, maybe 10-12 homers (he uses a split-grip technique swinging from the left side, and that'll be tough to generate power from), and 30-35 steals. Not to mention he'll have a good range rating in center field and likely a minus-1 arm. Oh, and he'll be able to bunt, too.
Anything else you need to know?
Comparable ceiling: Shane Victorino
Comparable floor: A little better Carlos Gomez
10) Drew Stubbs, OF, Reds: Yet another tall, athletic center fielder. I had a tough call for this 10th spot, and had 3-4 different players here at one point. Stubbs was merely the last guy to end up there, and I placed him there on a whim, literally from a memory I had of a couple games I saw him play this season.
What I like about Stubbs is his ability to adjust during a game. I saw pitchers make him look silly on a breaking pitch his first time up, then he'd come up the next time and hit an even better version of that breaking pitch for a double or homer. And what really helps his case is that he gets deep into counts and really gets a good look at opposing pitchers, something many youngsters don't do. Naturally, that has led to a high K rate. But it'll come with a decent walk rate, and it'll speed up his major league progression.
Stubbs will give you a card with good power numbers, a good clutch hitting rating, decent lefty/righty balance and a good steal rating from 2009. In the future, he'll give you 25-30 homers a season with a similar number of doubles, a good OBP, 25-30 steals and a good E-rating and arm in center field.
Stubbs isn't as flashy as the others on this list, but he's a nice consolation prize for those who need outfielders but don't have an early draft spot.
Comparable ceiling: Vernon Wells in his good years
Comparable floor: Vernon Wells now
The Next 10
Those who just missed the cut.
11) Chris Coghlan, OF, Marlins: A legit candidate to someday lead the league in hitting, and let's not forget he is an adept second baseman, and the team still has plans to move him there in the future.
12) Elvis Andrus, SS, Rangers: Super fast, with great range at shortstop, and a decent batting eye, but a big reason he ranks this high is simple supply and demand. There aren't many good, young shortstops ready to debut anytime soon.
13) Alcides Escobar, SS, Brewers: Just like Andrus, he's a good young shortstop. He has more all-around upside than Andrus, but I don't think he'll approach it in 2010. In fact, his owners will have to wait a few years for him to be useable.
14) Cameron Maybin, OF, Marlins: Will 2010 be the year he translates his minor league success to the majors? (Shaking my Magic 8-Ball.) "Don't count on it." There ya go! But he is only 22.
15) Neftali Feliz, P, Rangers: So let's fast-forward a year. Either he goes to the rotation and suffers bumps, bites and bruises pitching home games at Rangers Ballpark and maxing out his pitch count in 5 innings, or he stays in middle relief and doesn't help Strat owners as much. There's a chance he could close, but the team doesn't project him to be a closer (right now), so it wouldn't be considered long-term.
16) Brett Anderson, SP, A's: I consider him a top-12 option. I think the kid has tremendous upside, like "getting Cy Young votes in the next two years" upside. It's just that nobody knows who he is yet, and thus he won't be in demand. He falls to here because you can get him here.
17) Jake Fox, OF, Cubs: Belongs in the AL as a DH, but one of the best pure young hitters, and I've already stated publicly that he'll be a future All-Star.
18) Jordan Zimmermann, SP, Nationals: Good stuff, yes, but it appears he still has plenty to learn about consistency, as there were days he simply didn't have it in 2009.
19) Nolan Reimold, OF, Orioles: Great power and a good batting eye, but you might want to see how he progresses following Achilles' surgery in September.
20) Mat Gamel, 3B/OF, Brewers: Very similar to Fox. Where will he play? His stint in Milwaukee seemed to have set him back in the minors, too, but he'll come around.
OK, now it's in your hands. Rank wisely, my friends, and find the car, ahem, guy who best fits your team needs.
Brendan Roberts is a freelance writer based out of St. Louis. He has written for Sporting News and MLB Publications, among other media outlets.