2009 Top Ten Rookies
By Brendan Roberts - Contributing Writer
01/17/2009
Brendan Roberts is a freelance writer based out of St. Louis. He has written for Sporting News and MLB Publications, among other media outlets.
NFL scouts love comparisons. Every report you see on to-be NFL rookies -- from game reviews to the Combine to individual workouts -- you see another player's name written below each young player as if to sum up a career he hasn't yet begun.
I've always found that a bit hokey. I mean, I wonder if that youngster has even met the veteran player, or actually fashions his game after 'em. For instance, say a great young safety's favorite player is Ed Reed, but scouts say he plays more like Troy Polamalu. Does Polamalu become his new favorite player? Does he go from watching Reed play every Sunday to learn from to watching the hard-hitting Steeler? And what if a comparison isn't Polamalu but the more-pedestrian Madieu Williams?
Well, the young "labeled" players might not like it, but it sure is helpful to us, especially when it comes to baseball players. It's all about our preference to nouns over adjectives. We've heard the term "fast" and "light-hitting" and "rangy" and "weak-armed," but when we hear "Juan Pierre," a bell rings in our heads. Voila! Comparisons just give us a range with which to work with, help us picture how that guy would fit in our lineups and rotations, and let's be honest, they give us something to be excited about, too. It's a lot more fun to track a player when he's "the next Chipper Jones" instead of "a rangy third baseman with good plate discipline, coverage and developing power."
And so, with this year's "Top 10 Rookies," I've done my best to match up the actual talents -- using hitting, fielding and base-running skills -- to a "ceiling" for each player, and what I consider to be a floor. I do this to help you get a better gauge of what a future -- and I'm looking more at the future in this piece instead of just 2009 -- holds for a young, relatively unproven player.
Two important points I'd like to make, though, and I apologize if it seems like a disclaimer: 1) The comparative ceilings attached to a player are rarely reached. That's why they call it a ceiling, the very best a player can do. Most settle somewhere below that, and some even well below it (ie. Todd Van Poppel was NOT the next Nolan Ryan after all). But that doesn't mean all players have the same ceiling; at least Van Poppel had the stuff and skills to be like Nolan Ryan. And 2) You won't see many low floors on a Top 10 Rookies list. If I think a player grades out as the next, oh, let's say Nick Punto, he likely won't make it in the Top 10. He'd "grade out" well below that.
So let's get to the Top 10 Strat-O-Matic rookies following the 2008 season. As always, read these in conjunction with the fantastic Rookie Review my friends at Stratogists.com produce. This year's class is pretty deep, and who knows, in three years, maybe the guy who does become the next Chipper Jones wasn't even on this list. Enjoy!
Top 10 Rookies
1) Evan Longoria, 3B, Rays. I know, I know, booorrrrriiiinnggg! Hey, I'm not about to stray from the norm when it comes to this guy. At times last season, watching him play, I totally forgot he was a rookie. That's how poised, savvy and skilled he is. In fact, if he hadn't (understandably) started slow in April and May, he'd have been an All-Star. He's that good.
And this from a guy who was wrong about him. Yup. I watched him live and in person in two spring-training games while down covering the Grapefruit League, and I saw a guy who flailed at curve balls, wasn't able to hit "pitchers' pitches" and looked like his head was spinning. I liked his future ... but boy, was I wrong about the eventual AL Rookie of the Year's rookie season. I'm sold now. If he can so thoroughly impress me like he did, the sky is the limit.
Longoria has tremendous range, and likely is headed toward a "1" rating within the next two seasons, and he'll slowly work his way to a fine E rating, too. He has perhaps league-leading home run power, albeit with a few K's (which won't entirely go away). I'm not sure he'll hit for a high average -- maybe .305-.310 for a season high -- but he'll draw plenty of walks to make up for that. Put simply, Ks are the only actual hole in his game, but name a bona fide, patient hitter other than Albert Pujols in which that's not the case?
If you own the top pick in your rookie draft, start scheming about whom you might take in the second round. It's like the 2003 NBA Draft -- LeBron, and then everyone else.
Ceiling: Mike Schmidt
Floor: Casey Blake
2) David Price, P, Rays. Yessir, the time has come -- I'm leading with two Rays. While everybody was wowing after his save that helped send the Rays to the World Series, I was actually quietly sobbing inside. I knew he was here to stay, I knew he'd be good right away, but I was hoping all those folks who play against me in fantasy and sim leagues would perhaps underrate him because they didn't have enough exposure or sample size to review. Ya know, maybe folks looked at him at this year's Joba Chamberlain (disappointment!). That went right out the window when he blew away the Sawx.
He might not start the season in the rotation, but everything I've heard from Tampa is that the Rays won't take their time making him a starter. This whole idea of using a future stud starter as a middle reliever is counter-productive in my mind anyway. Sure, the youngster hones his craft by facing big-league hitters, but you're not exactly stretching him out to be a starter and letting him develop, and you might even be setting him back from doing so. In most cases, teams have to send that pitcher back to the minors anyway to get him ready to start again. But that's neither here nor there.
Price has the stuff we see only once a generation. He can nearly reach triple digits on the radar gun, throws left-handed, has a biting slider, possesses big-league-level composure and an attack mentality ... and all in a frame that is able to support such skills without the fear of injury (as in, he's not Scott Kazmir). I know starting pitchers can make for risky early-round picks, but this guy's upside is well worth it. Years from now, you'd hate to think you had a chance at him and didn't take him.
Ceiling: Randy Johnson
Floor: Eric Milton (in his good years)
3) Max Scherzer, P, Diamondbacks. Sure, I just get done admitting how risky a starting pitcher can be with the first few picks, and then I pick a second one here. That's how much I believe in Scherzer.
The 23-year-old Scherzer set the baseball world on its ear when he fired 4 1/3 perfect innings against Houston in his debut outing April 29, striking out Miguel Tejada, Lance Berkman and five others. The D-backs played it safe with him in 2008, limiting him to just 56 big-league innings, but all indications are he'll be a starter for the team coming out of spring training, and I see an immediate impact, even while pitching at a hitters' park.
What makes Scherzer so effective also coincides with his biggest weakness. He challenges hitters with a high-90s fastball and wicked breaking stuff, and thus breaks a lot of bats and records Ks. But he'll also leave the ball in the center of the plate, which can be bad at Chase Field, and he has the occasional bout with wildness. But he's a student of the game, and he has a couple of great young teachers in Brandon Webb and Dan Haren. He'll mow through a light-hitting NL West in a good percentage of his starts, and rack up great numbers for you to build on.
Ceiling: Tim Lincecum
Floor: Jeremy Bonderman
4) Clayton Kershaw, SP, Dodgers. Yup, another starting pitcher. What's this world coming to? It's called the end of the "Steroid Era," folks.
Kershaw already has one of the best curveballs in the game, a sweeping hook that starts behind lefty hitters, similar to that of Barry Zito's. Except he throws harder than Zito, even reaching as high as 99 mph, and he has developed a circle change that grades out as good as well. Hitters say the fastball-changeup combo (if both pitches are good) can be the toughest to hit, and Kershaw is developing that combo and pairing it with the sweeping curve. And he has enough meat on his bones and throws from a high-enough arm slot that I don't worry much about injuries.
The only concern with Kershaw is the same as with other young pitchers: the walks. He sometimes loses control of that curveball and lets his fastball ride high, and scouts say that, right now, if a hitter is able to foul off Kershaw's best pitches, he can draw a walk. But that comes with about every dominant pitcher, and while I don't think they'll completely go away, I think Kershaw will keep his batting-average-against low enough that it'll hardly be noticed by his Strat owners.
Ceiling: Cole Hamels
Floor: Barry Zito
5) Jay Bruce, OF, Reds. A No. 5 rank is pretty high, but the fact that he's not second or third should speak volumes. I'm just not ready to believe Bruce will do anything more than what he did last season, which was hit .254, strike out a lot, show only occasional power, look a bit error-prone in center field, and flash only above-average speed.
The kid is a five-tool talent, for sure, but he's 21. It'll take years, not months, for him to develop into the player you're drafting him to be if you take him No. 2 or No. 3 overall. He's just not ready to put up an All-Star-caliber season until at least 2010, and more likely 2011.
Can you wait that long? The win-now Strat owner in me says no, and I'd really rather not take on another K per 3.75 at-bats in the process, or a .320-ish OBP, or double-digits errors. Bruce's five-tool label suggests he has five relevant talents to help the Strat owner, but I don't see him doing any of those five so extraordinarily well right now that I can look past his deficiencies. Therefore, I label this a "future pick" and advise owners in win-now mode to look elsewhere.
Ceiling: Ken Griffey Jr.
Floor: Corey Patterson (when he was still decent)
6) Alexei Ramirez, 2B, White Sox. He'll probably be taken around the 10th or 11th hole in your rookie draft, as well he should be. But I value him here because I think he has way more upside than he's given credit for.
The man he's most compared with, Alfonso Soriano, has been the subject of many an argument among simulation-league owners. The gap power is awesome, but the lack of walks and Ks are not. The range is awesome, but the high E rating is not. The steals are awesome, but the caught stealing numbers are not. But I rated him this high because he's definitely a better fielder than Soriano, and he'll likely settle at shortstop, maybe even in 2009.
Essentially, Alexei has a little less power potential and speed than Soriano, but he's a better fielder. Sounds like a good tradeoff to me, and definitely enough to both stick in the big leagues and develop into even a middle-of-the-lineup Strat option.
Ceiling: Alfonso Soriano
Floor: Ray Durham (in his White Sox years)
7) Francisco Liriano, P, Twins. There's not much to say about this guy that hasn't already been said. As Peter Venkman on "Ghostbusters" said, "We came, we saw, we kicked its ass ..." Liriano was the cat's meow, a prolific strikeout pitcher, before Tommy John surgery sat him down.
After watching his return in April 2008, I was on record as saying I didn't think he'd be the same pitcher. Sure, he struggled mightily, but it was also apparent to me that the Twins had raised his arm slot, probably to avoid further injury. That took some of the "sweep" from his sweeping slider, and some of the deception from his delivery. I was sure that he'd turn into an above-average pitcher. Then the Twins sent him to the minors, and the pitcher I (and everyone else) saw upon his return was completely different. His arm slot had dropped down a smidge, but for the most part, he figured out how to be successful with a slightly raised arm slot. That's what great pitchers do, I again realized. They make adjustments. He might not rack up quite as many Ks, but he should eventually become a better overall pitcher who can pitch deeper into games.
Liriano might not be available if your Strat league is a keeper league. But because he didn't have a card last season, and he's in this year's Rookie Review, I would have been remiss not to include him. I do like him, although it will take another year before my concern over him having another arm injury goes away.
Ceiling: Francisco Liriano 2006
Floor: Francisco Liriano 2007
8) Chris Davis, 3B, Rangers. Davis could hit more homers in 2009 than Evan Longoria. I'll begin there, but the superiority ends there, too; Davis strikes out a ton, he has below-average range for a third baseman, has little speed, and he probably won't hit .300 in a season.
But he's in the majors to stay, and his power is just part of the story with this guy. First of all, the guy is huge, at 6-foot-4 and 235 pounds. And it appears to me he's still filling out. When you say a 190-pounder has 40-homer potential, you have doubts. When you hear it attached to a 250-pounder, you nod your head. Davis tore up the minors, both in power and average, and took his show right into Rangers Ballpark in 2008. And the splits from last season are the reason he makes No. 8 on my list. First of all, he played in a big-time hitters' park, and yet posted a better OPS on the road. And more importantly, the lefty slugger posted a better OPS against lefties than against righties, thanks in part to a .593 SLG against LHPs.
You try finding a young lefty slugger with that kind of balance and the ability to draw walks. There just aren't many of them, and we've yet to see what this 22-year-old can really do.
Ceiling: Troy Glaus
Floor: Morgan Ensberg
9) Denard Span, OF, Twins. What the? Hey, what is this guy doing in a Top 10 list? Well, you know how the Twins had a group of unproven young pitchers (Kevin Slowey, Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, Glen Perkins) that, for the most part, were fly-ball pitchers who let opposing hitters put the ball in play, and yet finished in the top half in the majors in pitching?
Yeah, get to know Denard Span and Carlos Gomez. Span already proved to be a good fielder in 2008, but I think he'll be a great fielder by the end of 2009, and nail down a 1 range rating in the process. And yet it's his offense I like the best. Did you realize he had a .387 OBP in 2008? Were he to get enough at-bats, he'd have ranked in the top 20 in that category, better than such players as Adam Dunn, Chase Utley, Brian Roberts ...
And he can run, too, which makes for a nice combination. The only knock on him is his power, but I think that'll develop to respectable status as he continues to fill out. So he's an excellent right fielder who hits lefty (but hit much better against LHPs in 2008), can get on base, can run ... Yahtzee!
Ceiling: Kenny Lofton
Floor: Matt Lawton
10) Jeff Clement, C, Mariners. Strat-O-Matic baseball is a great game, but it's not without its flaws. One of them, at least in most leagues, is that you can start a hitter at a position he qualifies at as much as you want, even though he rarely plays that position in the majors.
Clement is likely headed to the DH spot (and the middle of the lineup) for the Mariners in 2009, but he'll play catcher just enough to qualify there and earn at least a respectable, but likely not good or maybe even average, defensive rating. Phil Nevin had a season like this with the Padres in 1999. He played mostly third base, hit 24 homers and slugged .527. But he also picked up 31 games at catcher, giving him eligibility there the following season.
Clement has similar 30-homer power, and he should begin showing it soon now that he has his "learning season" out of the way. It's also a plus that he bats left, and yet hit lefties better than righties in 2008. He'll be more than "useable" next season; he could be residing in the middle of your lineup.
Ceiling: Phil Nevin (in his good seasons)
Floor: Phil Nevin (in his bad seasons)
And the rest ...
These guys who didn't make the list (ranked best to worst), but they just missed the cut:
Justin Masterson: I just love this guy; that slider of his is amazing. But his lack of a nailed-down starting role might relegate him to a middle-relief role again, which hurts his value.
Chris Volstad: Another guy I like more than most. Volstad will (and maybe already has) develop(ed) into a reliable No. 2 or 3 starter thanks to his ground-ball tendencies and ability to keep the ball in the park. He could be a poor man's Brandon Webb.
Hiroki Kuroda: I like him so much over the next 2-3 seasons that I even considered him for that No. 10 spot above. A closer examination dropped him three spots.
Taylor Teagarden: All this Matt Wieters talk has taken away some of Teagarden's gusto. He think he could be almost the same kind of offensive force as Wieters.
Clay Buchholz: I'm still a believer, but I think it takes more than an offseason to wipe away his awful 2008 season.
Luke Hochevar: I mentioned Bonderman above ... Hochevar is a similar case. He'll get a little better every year, building to a near All-Star caliber, but little will realize it because they're tired of waiting for him by then. Of course, he also could get hurt like Bonderman.
Armando Galarraga: Great intangibles, but he came out of the woodwork a bit too much for me to expect a repeat.
Chase Headley: Ready for this? I think, even at his peak, Headley will be a good, but not All-Star-caliber player. I just don't see where the power will come from, and I don't think he does any one thing exceptionally well. Kinda reminds me of Mark Kotsay, for some reason.
Jose Arredondo: If only he'd have been given a chance to close this season ...
Johnny Cueto: Had a rough 2008 season, but I still love his stuff that I'd take him in a heartbeat.
Mike Aviles: Just 'cause he's a Royal, and he kinda came out of nowhere, nobody is a believer. I for one believe he's a solid fielder and a legit .300 hitter.
Joey Devine: I think he settles in to become a steady major league closer, posting fine "percentage numbers" in the process.
Travis Snider: I think he'll be a fine major leaguer, just not in 2009. Or 2010.
Gio Gonzalez: Seems "prospectors" either love him or hate him. I guess I'd fall in the former category; I think the kid is the real deal, but we might not know that till 2010.
Dexter Fowler: Hmm, appears I'm not nearly as high on him as my Stratogists brethren, but I recognize his talent. I guess I need to see it to believe it before I think he's just another Felix Pie.
Carlos Gonzalez: Ditto. Gonzalez has talent and opportunity in Colorado, but I'm afraid he's going to settle in as one of those guys who can hit only at Coors Field and can't hit lefties.
Jim Johnson: Do yourself a favor a check out his 2008 numbers before you write him off. I think he's a future big-league closer.
Nick Blackburn: The scouts just love his poise and command, but I see a kid who allows way too many balls to be put into play on a fast surface at the Metrodome. I'm afraid he'll have one of those seasons in which he walks only 35 in 210 innings but allows 240 hits.
Chris Perez: I think he'd make for a fine big-league closer. If only the Cardinals, who have been searching for one all offseason, agreed.
Jeff Samardzija: I don't think he'll be anything more than a great setup man, but the key word in this case is "great."
Dan Murphy: Great 2008 card to use, but I don't see him sustaining those numbers for a full season.
Blake DeWitt: I could see a Casey Blake ceiling. Considering I own Blake in a Strat league, that should mean something.
Pablo Sandoval: Yes, I too was surprised by his success in 2008. But if he can somehow stay at catcher and come anywhere close to that, you have a golden draft pick.
Sergio Romo: Seems to put up great numbers wherever he goes, but is he merely a middle reliever?
Brandon Wood: I'm not a believer anymore. He strikes out too much to matter, and he's not that great a fielder anyway.
Jed Lowrie: I'm comfortable with him at shortstop, but are the Red Sox?
Matt Joyce: He'll get an opportunity in Florida, but I don't think he'll do much with it.
Ramon Ramirez: He's had success at every stop, but the Great American Ball Park (and the Reds) have a way of roughing up young pitchers (see: Bailey, Homer; Cueto, Johnny), and I foresee the same for this little Venezuelan.
Eric Hurley: Rangers Ballpark and the Rangers' defense will ruin his stats.
Chris Dickerson: The Reds' move to get Willy Taveras more or less moved Dickerson aside.
Kosuke Fukudome: Picture me putting my thumb and middle finger and pinching my nose.
-- Brendan Roberts is a freelance writer based out of St. Louis. He has written for Sporting News and MLB Publications, among other media outlets.