2008: The Finest Vintage in Years
By Brendan Roberts - Contributing Writer
12/07/2007
The game is in good hands.
I’m talking about the game of baseball. (Of course, the Strat-O-Matic game is as well, thanks to the efforts of The Mavens at Glen Head, N.Y., diehards like you, and crack analysts such as those at Stratogists.com.) So, just like the past two years, my friends here at Stratogists asked for a “Top 10,” a review of the top 10 rookie cards available to Strat owners each year, thinking in both the long- and short-term. Seems easy enough, right?
Not this year. Not the assignment itself, but the Top 10. Whereas my past two Top 10s saw a considerable decline from No. 10 to, say, No. 15, the talent pool is so much deeper this year. I could conceivably do a Top 25, and you owners would be batting your eyes or drooling at No. 25 on the list. As I look at the list below, even No. 25 would probably be talent like Felix Pie, Jair Jurrjens or Yunel Escobar.
Even the talent at the top is better than most years. Sure, we had potential staff aces (Justin Verlander, Cole Hamels, Francisco Liriano) and a few All-Star-capable position players (Hanley Ramirez, Stephen Drew) last year, but this year we offer 10 (or more!) players who already seem capable of an All-Star run in 2008. They’re that good.
So I took a different approach with this, my third annual “Top 10 Rookies.” I still have a Top 10 Rookies area, which I consider the best of the already-established players (the big names). These players not only have bright futures, but they also have useable cards from 2007. Then I have a “Top 10 Prospects” section. These players have a bright future, but their 2007 cards won’t be very desirable. And finally, I’ve combined the two sections to give you a true Top 10.
But wait, there’s more (he said in his best Billy Mays voice). Another byproduct of ranking a deep pool of players is that good players get cut from it. Some of them just missed, and many of them are listed as well. But other cuts were downright intentional, and I want the whole world (or at least the Stratogists community) to know it. So I’ve added a “Top 10 Mirages” section, the players who have decent 2007 cards but, in my mind, not as bright of a future.
Here, here. All this adds up to one small compliment for Stratogists’ trophy pig, prize-winning watermelon, vintage Ford Mustang ... the Rookie Review. Well done as always, gentlemen. I’d happily plop down some greenbacks for quality analysis and completeness like that ... ahem, if I didn’t get it for free (part of my elaborate, A-Rod-like contract with ‘em).
Without further ado, here are the best of the best, the Top 10 Strat rookies:
TOP 10 ROOKIES
1) Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP, Red Sox. Yup, you heard me. Y’all can have your 23-year-old “future stars,” your young prototypical sluggers or power pitchers ... I’ll take the frail (despite the chubby cheeks) 27-year-old who finished eighth in the majors in strikeouts in his first big-league season. The guy who had 10 wins at the All-Star break before wearing down in the second half. Here’s the thing about Dice-K: He has “ace stuff” – mid-90s fastball, a great slider hitters have called “tricky,” the gyroball (which is really just a glorified two-seamer) and more. But it’s his demeanor, composure and smarts that make him a sure thing. Or at least will, once he learns the hitters. Lemme put it to you this way: If you think Dice-K was good this year, then you ain’t seen nothing yet.
2) Tim Lincecum, SP, Giants. Speaking of 23-year-old power pitchers ... Timmy is just that (of course, he looks like he’s about 12). And after watching his debut against the Phillies, I knew he was destined for superstardom – after about five pitches. Lincecum is 5-11 and 170 pounds soakin’ wet, but he tops out in the high 90s and throws a curve that scouts say is the best breaker since Kerry Wood’s. There’s something not right about that (5-11, skinny guy throwing in the high 90s); that’s what makes Lincecum so unique. Lincecum’s body looks like it’s made of rubber when he pitches. He’s very flexible, and he has a head lean very much like Orel Hershiser’s that helps him “over-rotate” his body and get more out of it, much like Sandy Koufax did years ago and Roy Oswalt does now. Not only does this give the young lad nasty stuff, but it also makes it look to hitters like he’s shooting a bazooka. Lincecum struck out more than a batter per inning and allowed just 12 homers in 146-plus innings, and that was with his coaching staff telling him to focus more on throwing strikes after a handful of high-walk games early in the year. If he can do all that at age 23 and is still learning ...
3) Ryan Braun, 3B, Brewers. I must admit I owned him in a fantasy league, much different than Strat, and this guy bailed me out immensely. But the high ranking has nothing to do with it. The high ranking might have more to do with the fact that I felt like I knew the guy his whole life by the time even reached the majors. He tore up some of college’s best pitchers as a Miami Hurricane, he hit .341 with a .383 OBP and .585 slugging in rookie ball, .355-.396-.645 in low-A, .303-.367-.589 in Double-A and .342-.418-.701 in Triple-A earlier this year. Then he wins the Rookie of the Year award with a .324 average, 34 homers and .634 slugging with the Brew Crew. The kid is for real, and he is just a kid, having turned 24 in November. OK, OK, so about his defense. As in, it’s not good. But every time I caught the Brewers in person, I saw Braun taking extra grounders there before games. He’s working on it, just like another good hitter who showed up in the bigs as a terrible fielder, Wade Boggs. Kinda reminds of Wade the fielder – stiff and jittery – but I think he could turn into a serviceable third-bagger in the next few years. If he doesn’t, well, he might be moved to the outfield, a move the Brewers already are discussing.
4) Alex Gordon, 3B, Royals. Many prospectors would have put Gordon higher on the list, but I saw some things in Gordon’s rookie year that bothered me. I know he’s only 23, he’s immensely talented, and he was cursed with playing for the lowly Royals. But he looked a little haphazard at times at third base, he hit just .231 (with a paltry .301 OBP) on the road, and the lefty swinger hit just .217 against lefties, with just more than 4.0 K’s per 10 at-bats. Plus, he doesn’t get as much lineup support as, say, Braun, and he has the curse of facing some pretty good pitching staffs in the AL Central a good 18 times a season. (Strat – and fantasy – owners so rarely incorporate divisional opponents in players’ projections.) I think Gordon will be an elite third baseman someday ... I just don’t think it’ll happen until at least 2010. That projection is reflected here.
5) Yovani Gallardo, SP, Brewers. Gallardo had a similar minor league dominance and path to the majors that Mr. Lincecum had, except he’s even younger (he’ll turn 22 in February), and he’s a more prototypical 6-2, 195. Gallardo has the same high velocity and brilliant curveball, and his heaters tend to have a lot of movement. All this means high K’s (he struck out an amazing 110 batters in the hitter-favorable PCL in 2007 before being called up by the Brewers), and Gallardo’s low walk totals is a pleasant surprise. He’s one of those guys who could throw a no-hitter in any given start. My only concerns, and the two reasons why Lincecum is ranked higher: his age, and his laissez-faire attitude. I’ve read a few reports that noted that Gallardo is not quite as into checking hitters’ scouting reports as some of his peers. He hasn’t needed to thus far, but he’ll need to development his mental side of the game in the bigs, which probably will come with age, before he becomes an elite pitcher.
6) Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Red Sox. Sox scouts sometimes cringe when they refer to him this way, thinking of a certain long-haired player that joined the enemy, but Ellsbury truly does grade out like Johnny Damon. He has incredible speed, which Damon had in his early years, and he has a quick, smooth swing, developing power, range galore in the outfield, he’s lefthanded (batting and throwing), he has a weak arm ... OK, you get the idea. Ellsbury is going to wreak havoc at the plate, on the basepaths and in the outfield grass to opposing teams for years to come. He doesn’t quite have the extra-base potential of Grady Sizemore, but he has more speed and probably will get an equal “range rating” as Grady in Strat someday, which is saying something. He still has a lot to learn, so you can’t project out his 2007 stats to a full season. But his starting spot should be safe in both the Sox’s and your lineup.
7) Joba Chamberlain, RP/SP, Yankees. His 2007 stats were incredible (0.38 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 34 K’s in 24 innings), and I shudder to think of what his card will look like. It’ll likely be pretty vanilla – all outs, many of them K’s. That said, I only partially value what he did because of how he was used. I’ve never been one to overrate middle relievers’ performances, especially given how much the Yankees protected him. They wouldn’t let him pitch in back-to-back days and used him to set up, and often his matchups weren’t exactly a challenge. Doing what he did offers no indication as to whether he could handle a pressure-packed closing role or have the stamina and creativity to be a starter--his most likely calling card. I like what I see, of course, especially the dominance versus lefty hitters. But don’t be the guy who ogles over those numbers and thinks that’s the pitcher you’re going to get for years.
8) Hunter Pence, OF, Astros. This is it? Eighth? For one of the most dynamic players in the game? Yup, and I might have had him ranked lower had I not researched his 2007 stats again. Pence is a younger version of Jeff Francoeur, except he has more speed and outfield range, and less arm and power. But they both have the free-swinging tendencies that make sabermetricians vomit. Pence had 79 at-bats in the month of July -- and walked twice. Ugh. He added more walks late in the season only because teams started to pitch around him. Pence hit .322 this season, but there’s no way a guy with that kind of undisciplined approach can regularly hit better than .300. Francoeur, for instance, hit .260 after hitting .300 his rookie year. Pence will hit for better power, but I just don’t see the AVG and OBP categories (an important one to most Strat owners) climbing much. Also, he plays with a reckless abandon (and at 6-4, he’s not exactly small and limber) that I could see leading to injuries. It’s just one man’s opinion, and he certainly deserves a high pick, but don’t expect numbers like he provided in 2007.
9) Billy Butler, DH, Royals. You know how I said I loved Gordon’s potential going into 2007, but I saw some things that bothered me? Well, Butler is just the opposite. I wondered what in the world a guy who projected as a first baseman or DH, really as just a way to get him into a lineup, could do to help us. He’s righthanded, he doesn’t have immense power, he has little or no speed ... and then I watched Butler play a few times. I saw a lightning-quick swing. I saw a guy who made adjustments pitch to pitch and at-bat to at-bat. I saw a guy who developed an affinity for hitting lefties (.340). I saw a guy who had the makeup to hit .312 on the road (39 points better than at home), with a .364 OBP. I saw a guy who hit .303 with runners in scoring position (11 points better than his season average), and .352 from the seventh inning and beyond. I liked what I saw from the 21-year-old. The whole DH thing hurts him, but don’t let him get overshadowed by more glamorous names on draft day.
10) Jeremy Guthrie, SP, Orioles. My friends at Stratogists don’t seem to like this guy, giving him a C- in the “Future Prognosis” area. Honestly, I don’t blame them. A look at his minor league stats and second-half struggles suggests he vastly overachieved. But I can’t just stand idly by and let a guy who took a 2.45 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and .211 batting-average-against into July, including a shutdown of the Red Sox in Boston, get punked like that. Just as I didn’t let Dan Uggla get punked in last year’s Top 10. Guthrie has five effective pitches, the type of pitching smarts a Stanford alum would have, was a former first-round pick ... I attribute the second-half struggles to stamina issues, and I truly believe he could come close to matching his first-half success for an entire season.
Honorable mention (in this order): Josh Fields, 3B, White Sox (just missed the cut; I like him); Asdrubal Cabrera, 2B, Indians; Kurt Suzuki, C, A’s; Micah Owings, SP, D-backs; Mark Reynolds, 3B, D-backs.
TOP 10 PROSPECTS
1) Phil Hughes, SP, Yankees. Like I wrote to Stratogists writer David Welch: (Drooooool.) Hamstring injuries aside, Hughes didn’t disappoint in his limited time with the Yankees. He has a great pitcher’s body (6-5, 220), has four capable big-league pitches (including a wicked curveball and diving two-seamer), great control and is considered very mature and coachable. Sign me up!
2) Cameron Maybin, OF, Tigers. We certainly didn’t see much from Maybin this year. He struck out 21 times and got just seven hits in 49 at-bats. I also saw a 6-4 guy who can run like the wind and swings out of his, uh, backside. Now he just needs to make contact more. The next Eric Davis?
3) Clay Buchholz, SP, Red Sox. Firing a no-hitter has to mean something, right? Wait, didn’t Wilson Alvarez and Bud Smith throw no-hitters as rookies? OK, maybe it doesn’t. But in the case of Buchholz, who has about the best offspeed stuff of any prospect, in my mind, I’m willing to equate it to future stardom. Buchholz still has plenty of learn, not the least of which is learning how to be more efficient with his pitches, even at the expense of his K’s (something Scott Kazmir still hasn’t learned). And that’s why I think the Sox will baby him another year or two and hold him back. That’s a good thing, but it’ll make Strat owners have to wait for him, too.
4) Andrew Miller, SP, Tigers. He’s a 6-6 power lefty ... need I say more? He was considered the 2006 draft’s top player despite sliding back to No. 6, and he pitched all of five Single-A innings before the Tigers had him in their bullpen in 2006. That’s a testament to how good Miller is – or will be. Only a lack of pro experience is holding him back now.
5) Homer Bailey, SP, Reds. I must admit I wasn’t impressed with him this season. The kid looked like a train wreck when he pitched, both statistically and emotionally. But hey, not everybody can be Roger Clemens. I went so far as to trade him in a keeper NL-only fantasy league in order to get some horses for a 2007 money run, and I don’t regret it. Another innocent glance at his scouting reports suggests I might, though. If only he didn’t pitch for the Reds and his home ages at Great American Ball Park ...
6) Brandon Morrow, RP, Mariners. Just as I don’t overrate Joba Chamberlain’s 2007 brilliance, I also don’t overrate Morrow’s 2007 struggles with control. Instead, I see a fifth pick overall in the 2006 draft (out of Cal) who has all of 16 minor league innings. This 23-year-old has amazing stuff; he just needs to learn to control it. That won’t happen in 2008, but it could in 2009, when he’d either be a six-inning power pitcher, or some team’s closer.
7) Andy LaRoche, 3B, Dodgers. Adam’s little brother tore up Triple-A (.309-.399-.589) and struggled mightily with the Dodgers (.226 average, .312 slugging) in 2007, which showed only that he wasn’t ready for the prime time. At only 24, with little more than JUCO experience, that’s not a surprise. But he’s a walks machine in the mold of a Kevin Youkilis, and I see him following the same progression.
8) Joey Votto, 1B, Reds. He hit .321 with a .360 OBP in limited time with the Reds after a dandy Triple-A season. I still think his Strat upside is somewhat limited because he doesn’t do anything spectacularly, but I’m sold on his big-league-caliber skills.
9) Andy Sonnanstine, SP, Devil Rays. We hear about great young pitchers Jeff Niemann and Wade Davis more than Sonnanstine, but I think Andrew is the best actual pitcher in the bunch. He doesn’t have the stuff that the other two prospects have, but I could see him settling as a solid No. 2 or 3 starter for years to come. Of course, it’d help if he could get out of Tampa (and out of the AL East).
10) Brandon Wood, 3B, Angels. Many prospectors have given up on Wood. Let this ranking show that I haven’t – but I’m about to. Wood just strikes out too darned much, kind of like “former” Angels prospect Dallas McPherson. I love his skills, but I have serious questions for a guy who strikes out 120 times in 437 at-bats in Triple-A.
Honorable mention (in this order): Justin Upton, OF, D-backs; Ubaldo Jimenez, SP, Rockies; Ian Stewart, 3B, Rockies; Miguel Montero, C, D-backs; Jair Jurrjens, SP, Braves; Felix Pie, OF, Cubs; Santiago Casilla, RP, A’s; Geovany Soto, C, Cubs; Carlos Gomez, OF, Mets; Yunel Escobar, SS, Braves; Garret Olson, SP, Orioles (my sleeper surprise pick), Michael Bourn, OF, Phillies; Steven Pearce, 1B, Pirates; Joel Guzman, IF, Devil Rays.
TOP 10 MIRAGES
1) Josh Hamilton, OF, Reds. He’s a good story and all, but no way. Again, the stat splits tell the story. He hit .312 with 11 homers at home versus .274-8 in more at-bats on the road; that doesn’t speak well for him should he be jettisoned elsewhere. He also hit .222 versus lefties, with just one of his 19 homers. And my biggest concern: Can he stay healthy? I say no.
2) Al Reyes, CL, Devil Rays. Do I really need to expound upon this? Look, his career totals are better than you think, but he’s still a 37-year-old journeyman middle reliever who is just a season removed from Tommy John surgery and is coming off a 5.86 second-half ERA. Good closer makeup, bad closer stuff.
3) Travis Buck, OF, A’s. Oh, spare me your boos. Sure, he’s a Billy Beane disciple (he can draw walks), but I also see a lot of K’s, little more than gap power and an inability to play through nicks and pains.
4) Rick Ankiel, OF, Cardinals. An even better feel-good story, but I still don’t believe it ... and I’m a St. Louis resident and a Cardinal fan!
5) Kason Gabbard, SP, Rangers. Opposing batters hit just .231 against him, and he pitched pretty darned well against some good teams. But Texas is a place where starting pitchers come to die (see: Millwood, Kevin).
6) Elijah Dukes, OF, Devil Rays. Somebody will give him a chance – and he’ll probably blow it. He’s headed down a Milton Bradley-like path early in his career.
7) Shelley Duncan, OF, Yankees. It’s amazing. When I see Duncan, my eyes morph him into ... Shane Spencer. Remember him? If you do, you’re probably realizing my comparison of the two. If you don’t, well, that should mean something, too.
8) Kyle Kendrick, SP, Phillies. Ten wins in 20 starts. Not bad. Know what else I saw? Sixteen homers allowed and a paltry 49 K’s in 121 innings. That doesn’t sit well with me, especially given his home park.
9) Jack Cust, OF, A’s. I’m actually a big fan of Cust, and I want to see him do well. But Strat owners must realize the guy can’t play defense and struck out a stunning 164 times in 395 at-bats for the A’s in 2007.
10) Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C/1B, Rangers. This is borderline blasphemy! Salty is a smart, disciplined hitter and all, but I’ve always felt he was just special because his brand of offense is rare for a catcher. Now that he’s playing catcher less and less and likely is on his way out at the position ...
Honorable mention (in this order): Hideki Okajima, RP, Red Sox; John Danks, SP, White Sox; Joakim Soria, RP, Royals; Akinori Iwamura, 3B, Devil Rays; Jayson Werth, OF, Phillies.
2009 STRAT ROOKIE CLASS
Or as I like to call it -- Evan Longoria and the rest. Unless some guys come out of the woodwork, I’m just not seeing the next rookie Strat class being near as deep as the one I’ve detailed above. The primary reason for that is because a number of the players (Maybin, Morrow, Justin Upton) slipped in a year earlier than expected. So when it comes to trading draft picks, definitely value this year’s much higher than next year’s. But while I’m talking about the 2009 Strat Rookie class, here’s a sneak preview of my projected top five: 1) Longoria, SS/3B, Devil Rays; 2) Adam Miller, SP, Indians; 3) Luke Hochevar, SP, Royals; 4) Ian Kennedy, SP, Yankees; Colby Rasmus, OF, Cardinals.