The 2006 Strat Rookie Class: Grading the top 10
By Brendan Roberts - Special Contributor
11/12/2005
Alex Rodriguez -- .204 average. Vladimir Guerrero -- .185. Johan Santana - 6.49 ERA (ouch). Jake Peavy - 4.52.
Statheads and Moneyballers everywhere say the numbers are the best indication of performance and future success. While that might hold true in many instances, it doesn't always hold true when discussing a 20-year-old kid getting a cup of coffee (otherwise known as 100 at-bats or 40 innings) at the highest level of baseball.
Two great hitters, two great pitchers - and all of them flopped in their debut seasons. A-Rod, just a mere pup at age 19, struck out in 20 of his 54 at-bats with Seattle in 1994. He had 11 hits - none of them for extra bases. And yet the Seattle management was foaming at the mouth when asked about their first pick the previous year. Santana walked 54 guys and struck out just 64, while also allowing opposing hitters to bat .302, in his 86 innings, mostly in relief, for the Twins in 2000. The Twins had plucked the unprotected lefty away from the Astros organization the previous December -- following a mediocre season at low -A ball. Why? Perhaps because of the scouting report: Great arm, A+ slider, B+ changeup … just needs command.
We at Sporting News' Fantasy Source (fantasy.sportingnews.com) use statistical data - usually three-year splits - to determine the fantasy and big-league value of established major leaguers. We're statheads - and damn proud of it. Statistical performance is more consistent year to year and variable to age than we give them credit for. However, when it comes to youngsters dealing with the big lights, clubhouses and stands, you might as well throw stats out the window. Scouting reports. It's all about the scouting reports.
Which is where Stratogists' Rookie Review comes in. We at Sporting News have access to pages and pages of scouting data of minor leaguers, but who really wants to look through pages and pages of boring scouting lingo of players, many of which never will make the majors? What Stratogists has done is taken this year's Strat rookies and prospects and broken them down by team, giving simple future prognoses and 2006 card expectations. Shazam! If only VCR programming could be this easy.
As such, my friend David Welch has asked that I pass along my top 10 prospects, the guys I think have the brightest futures - even if they don't show it this season.
1 . Felix Hernandez, SP, Mariners: Mine eyes have seen the glory. Hernandez has all it takes (stuff, grittiness, mound savvy) to anchor a staff -- both MLB and Strat-O-Matic - all in a little 19-year-old package. However, be forewarned. It's quite uncommon for a pitcher these days to make it through his first five seasons without some form of minor injury, especially if he takes on a major workload - which most staff aces do.
2. Prince Fielder, 1B, Brewers: His daddy Cecil's pop, with maybe a better glove. Fielder actually did show his home run prowess in his rookie season (as well as the Single-A Midwest League), and he'll get a shot to play everyday in 2006.
3. Rickie Weeks, 2B, Brewers: Most scouts who saw him said he looked "raw, but talented." Translation: Future All-Star. Weeks is one of those guys who will help a Strat team is so many ways. One day he'll get four hits, the next he'll get a key home run, followed by a brilliant night of defense and a key stolen base. You get the picture.
4. Huston Street, RP, A's: It's amazing that scouts and even onlookers can see immediate success coming, and yet Street was the 40th pick overall in the 2004 draft. Nevertheless, Street has lightning offspeed stuff - think Trevor Hoffman and Eric Gagne offspeed stuff -- to go with good velocity. That's the recipe for a fine career as a closer. Plus, Street will be equally effective against both righties and lefties.
5. Robinson Cano, 2B, Yankees: He kind of came out of nowhere on us, but Cano will develop into a solid fielder with extra-base power and a solid batting average. A guy you could lock in your Strat squad and not be worried about. Of course, we must say that Yankees' lineup probably makes him look like a better hitter than he is.
6. Zach Duke, SP, Pirates: The Stratogists aren't as high on Duke, but I think he has several winning seasons ahead despite playing for the Pirates. Duke reminded me a lot of a young Mark Buehrle. He'll be consistent inning to inning and start to start. And it's rare you can say that about 22-year-olds.
7. Jeremy Hermida, OF, Marlins: Just watch him swing the bat. That's about all I can say. Hermida's minor league numbers: Good, not great. His debut: Good, not great. Upside: Great, not good.
8. Andy Marte, 3B, Braves: It's really not fair that the Braves continually churn out Rookie of the Year candidates, is it? Hey, that's how you win 14 division titles. Anyway, Marte is for those of you who ogle over guys like Aramis Ramirez and Adam Dunn. Marte likely won't hit better than .280, but he'll bring prodigious power and a better-than-advertised glove.
9. Willy Taveras, OF, Astros: Strat owners will balk at his lack of extra-base hits total. But let's give Willy some props here. He's 23, and he batted .291 a full season after getting rushed from Double-A. Taveras hit .335 in Double-A. Oh, and he finished sixth in the NL in steals and tied for sixth in outfield assists. He has Gold Glove-caliber defense, .300-average potential and 50-steal capabilities. The only thing missing will be OBP and extra bases.
10. Ervin Santana, SP, Angels: To see the talent Santana has, you must ignore his poor starts. Sure, that sounds easy, but when you watch one of his good starts, you swear you're looking at Pedro Martinez. Great changeup, decent velocity, deceptive delivery, whirly curveball. You might not see Santana's dominance right away, just as the Dodgers didn't see Pedro's. But he's worth having on the squad if you can afford to be patient.
Brendan Roberts is a senior editor and fantasy baseball expert at Sporting News. You can read more of his work at fantasy.sportingnews.com