Trans-STRAT-ctions VIII
By Joe Harder - Guest Writer
02/03/2009
Answers to quiz from two weeks ago - How well do you know your middle infielders?
Match the player with his official MLB height and weight as well as his 2008 OPS:
From smallest to largest in stature: Eckstein, a-V.692, M. Izturis, b-IV.691, Carroll, c-VIl .700, Vizquel, d-1 .550, Pedroia, e-VII .869, C. Izturis, f-II .628, German, g-III .640.
Takeaway: M. Izturis and Carroll are the two players who are likely to be undervalued in your league, but they both have perfectly respectable 2008 Strat cards, especially in deep leagues or where you can use the defense (ss-2, 2b-2, 3b-3 for Izturis; 2b-2 for Carroll), Carroll’s 40+ on base both ways, or Izturis’s massively positive clutch. Since I have Pedroia as well, who is a 2b-1 but has a huge negative clutch rating, either or both of these will probably make my team, and Carroll at the moment might be my starting 3b (with Rolen’s 3b-1 for defense in the wake of Carroll’s 3b-3e44) and Izturis my starting shortstop, though I’ll aim to do better by using late draft picks to grab an older free agent or two in our league to play the left side (my scouting of which I’ll reveal if you email me), with Izturis becoming the primary utility player.
And the answer to the bonus question is former Charlottesville Meadow utility player par excellence Tony Phillips.
Signings and sighings - a busy start to the month as Spring Training draws nigh
Ty Wigginton signs with the Orioles. Wigginton mashed lefties fairly well in 2008, as he has in his career, so if you can live with his defense and need someone to hit lefties, he may be a good fit for your team. Don’t expect too much against righties, and he’s getting to that stage of his career (post thirty) where a decline seems probable. Will battle Melvin Mora for third base time, and Ryan Freel for utility infield/outfield time, but could conceivably see a lot of time in left field over Luke Scott and Lou Montanez.
RHB INF Rich Aurilia signed a Minor League deal with Giants who invited him to Spring Training. Late 30’s utility player (1b, 2b, 3b) hits lefties decently, but has a lot of ground ball A’s and doesn’t add much to your team in the way of speed.
LHB 2B Adam Kennedy released by Cardinals. Could be a pinch runner or a defensive 2b (if you’re starting a 2b-4 out there), but future prospects are dim.
RHB INF Morgan Ensberg signed a Minor League contract with the Rays. Thirty-three year old former lefty masher did nothing in his 74 at bats with the Yankees last year…Evan Longoria insurance?
RHB OF Andruw Jones signed a Minor League contract with the Rangers who invited him to Spring Training. Oh how the mighty have fallen. Worth very little of the $14,726,910 he got from the Dodgers last year (a little Giants fan schadenfreude here). If he’s going to resurrect his career anywhere, the friendly confines in Texas are probably better than anywhere else, but I remain skeptical now that he’s thirty-one years old…Josh Hamilton insurance?
RHP Brendan Donnelly signed a Minor League contract with the Rangers who invited him to Spring Training. Thirty-seven year old formerly solid set-up man moves to a tough ballpark, if he makes the team. Still, with the somewhat unproven Frank Francisco as closer, who knows?
RHP Tom Gordon signed a one-year contract with the Diamondbacks. Forty-one year old Flash appeared in a mere thirty-four games last year for the champion Phillies, and was used less than an inning an outing. This may have been due to his 1.62 WHIP and 5.16 E.R.A. (and with Lidge as closer, you have to figure not a lot of that E.R.A. was due to his letting Gordon’s runners score). I love Flash, and he was an integral part of several of my teams. In fact, I’m very psyched about playing the 2001 World Series in my league, in which he and Troy Percival serve as co-closers. But 2001 is a long way in the past. You have better options.
RHB OF/1B Jeff Bailey outrighted to Triple-A Pawtucket by Red Sox, but invited to Spring Training. Thirty year old has a nice, albeit limited, reversed right hand pinch hitting card, but all his power’s against lefties (where he has low on base). Still, the Red Sox need someone to play first if Youkilis mans third due to injuries to Lowell, and though I’d dearly love that to be Big Papi, they have demonstrated that they don’t believe that to be the solution. So, Bailey may get some playing time throughout the year.
LHP Randy Wolf signed a one-year contract with the Dodgers. Thirty-two year old lefty was a reversed starred starter last year, so you wouldn’t want him facing many lefties. He moves to a better pitcher’s park, and may have some good years left, but don’t overpay.
RHP Winston Abreu signed a Minor League contract with the Rays who invited him to Spring Training. Thirty-two year old last pitched in the majors in 2007 and has managed a Gordon-esque career WHIP of 1.62 and E.R.A. of 6.81. The wrong Abreu.
RHP Jason Jennings signed a Minor League contract with the Rangers who invited him to Spring Training. Thirty-year old went 0-5 last year, with a WHIP of 1.94 and an E.R.A. of 8.56, and is moving to a hitter’s park (again, if he even makes the squad).
C Curtis Thigpen sent outright to Triple-A Las Vegas by Blue Jays. Former catcher of the future seems to be a Quad-A player, and suggests that the job belongs to…Michael Barrett or Rod Barajas?
LHB OF Jacque Jones and LHB 1B/OF Daryle Ward signed Minor League contracts with the Reds, with invitations to Major League Spring Training. Jacque joins Andruw in the race for worst major league role model for “keeping up with the Jones’s”… (Larry Wayne Jones reigns as the best). Ward had a good pinch hitting card two years ago.
RHP Elmer Dessens signed a Minor League contract with the Mets who invited him to Spring Training. Elmer didn’t pitch in the majors in 2008, and any glory days he may have had seem far distant.
LHB OF Cliff Floyd signed a one-year contract with the Padres. Oft-injured thirty-six year old defensive liability moves to the National League. The Friars are going to need some Divine Intervention, even in the weak N.L. West. Likely benefit to fans - when you stay in the hotel with rooms that literally overlook left field you’ll be able to honestly say “I could have caught that!” For your Strat team, if you can DH/PH him, you’ll get a modicum of power against righties, but except in deep leagues, he’s probably better left undrafted.
LHP Tyler Johnson signed a Minor League contract with the Mariners who invited him to Spring Training. Another non-relevant transaction included solely in the interest of thoroughness. Listed at 6’3”, 272 pounds, this thirty-two year old is not likely to be as successful as the 6’7”, 290 pound (listed, mind you) C.C. Sabathia, but comes a lot cheaper, and may approximate the performance of 6’6”, 270 pound Humberto Sanchez of the Yanks, and better than that of 6’10”, 270 pound Andy Sisco.
LHP Brian Tallet signed a one-year contract with the Blue Jays. Thirty-one year old reversed lefty reliever is respectable against lefty batters, but for the second year in a row better against righties. What’s a lefty doing with a plus four hold, though? Tallet’s on my team, and he’ll probably make my squad, but I’ll need to get another lefty in the draft to do the specialty work (Pedro Feliciano flamed out, and the aforementioned Andy Sisco has never materialized at the major league level). The aptly-named Tallet stands 6’7”, but at only 220 pounds he’s a wiry dude compared to the four above.
RHP T.J. Beam claimed off waivers by the Blue Jays from the Pirates. Gets out righties, but woe be to you if you leave him in there against lefties. Twenty-eight, so this should be his career best upcoming, if it’s ever going to happen. His nickname should be “String,” if it’s not, as he is 6’7”, 195 pounds.
LHP Odalis Perez, signed a one-year contract with the Nationals. LHP Oliver Perez re-signed with the Mets, to a three-year contract. One’s from Mexico, one’s from the Dominican Republic. One’s over thirty, one’s twenty seven. One tips the scales at 150, one at 217. One made $6,500,000 last year, one made $850,000. Most significantly, one would be a good addition to your team, and one…actually wouldn’t be so bad. Oliver has age, contract status, and bodily bulk going for him, but Odalis’s numbers are not that big a drop off over Oliver’s, and he is likely to be available later or cheaper. Oliver is starred, Odalis is not, but both give up fewer than ten hits, fewer than twenty on base chances, and fewer than twenty five total bases against lefties, coupled with about thirty on base chances (with Odalis actually slightly better), forty five total bases, and three ballpark diamonds against righties, and between four and six ground ball A’s. You want Oliver, if you want one or need the starred starter, but it may behoove you to look at Odalis in your scouting for non-starred lefty starters. Both ballparks are slightly pitcher’s parks, so that’s good.
LHP John Parrish, who had been with the Blue Jays, signed a Minor League contract with the Orioles who invited him to Spring Training. Not much of redeeming value on this thirty-one year old’s 2008 card as a reversed lefty who doesn’t do all that well against righties and only threw 42 innings.
RHB OF Matt Murton, twenty-seven, acquired by the Rockies from the Athletics. Murton’s role in Oakland was going to be limited, with Matt Holliday entrenched and Ryan Sweeney, Travis Buck, Chris Denorfia, Jack Cust, possibly Ben Copeland, and even Rajai Davis as part of that mix, but he joins an almost as crowded situation in Colorado, with perhaps not quite ready youngsters Dexter Fowler, Carlos Gonzalez, and Matt Miller, the surprising Sean Smith, steady Brad Hawpe and Ryan Spilborghs, and over-the-hill Scott Podsednik. Still, I like Murton’s chances to get playing time better here, and there’s always the Mile High factor. He mashed lefties when he came up, so maybe he can at least re-find that. Incidentally, the Rockies outfield averages 6’2”, 201 pounds, 26-3/4 years old…Holliday, 28, is 6’4”, 235.
LHP Brian Burres claimed off waivers by Blue Jays from the Orioles. Twenty-seven year old lefty was not really respectable against lefties or righties last year, but does provide 130 innings of starter/reliever work, and should be entering whatever prime he has.
RHP Vinnie Chulk signed a Minor League contract with Indians, who invited him to Spring Training. Thirty-year old’s eight ballpark diamonds both ways scream stay away in anything but an extreme pitcher’s park, especially given the low innings on his card.
LHP Eddie Guardado re-signed with the Rangers, to a Minor League contract with an invitation to Spring Training. Everyday Eddie, though thirty-eight and not every day anymore, could conceivably serve as your lefty specialist if you can live with his five ballpark diamonds.
SHB C Javier Valentin, thirty-three, and SHB IF Alex Cintron , thirty, signed Minor League deals with the Nationals. Cintron you can probably leave alone, as even as a utility player you can do better than a four all the way around the infield, but Valentin is intriguing. The catching situation is at least a bit unsettled in D.C., though Jesus Flores has the inside track, and in 2005 given the chance to play he managed a line of .281/.362/.520, before being relegated to mostly pinch hitting status with the Reds since. In this year’s card set his only value is the thirty four on base chances against righties and the fact that he can play catcher, first, and third at the four level. I drafted him in the third round following his 2005 season, and am still hanging on to him in hopes of some semblance of that performance again.
LHP Rich Hill, twenty-eight, acquired by the Orioles from the Cubs in exchange for a player to be named. Could well compete for a starting job in this beleaguered organization that appears to be in a race with their geographic rivals the Nationals to make the most insignificant moves of the spring. I’d probably take Shawn Hill, twenty-seven year old righty for Washington (see below), over Rich, but it’s likely neither belongs on your 2008 team.
RHP Michael Wuertz traded to Athletics from the Cubs for Minor League OF Richie Robnett and IF Justin Sellers. The thirty-year old Wuertz has an interesting little reversed righty relief card, albeit with five diamonds, and you don’t want him in there against too many righties. Moving to the Coliseum is usually a plus for pitchers as well.
RHP Josh Fogg, thirty-two, signed a Minor League contract with the Rockies, who invited him to Spring Training. Pretty much a lost year in 2008, and the wrong age for you to be banking on a big recovery, especially in Colorado.
Free agent RHP Ben Sheets, dob: 7/18/78 will miss a chunk of the season following elbow surgery. An elite pitcher up until now, if healthy, he had been rumored to be headed to the Rangers. I drafted him in the fifth round after he went undrafted his rookie year in our league, traded him before he ever threw a pitch for me for John Olerud (who helped me land Jeff Bagwell and Greg Maddux), and have regretted missing out on his few solid years, but can only imagine how his current owner feels. Now might actually be a good time to buy low, as his arm has certainly had less wear and tear on it from pitching than similar aged hurlers.
Arbitrate this
Ryan Howard signed a multi-year deal with the Phillies, avoiding a “potentially contentious arbitration hearing,” according to the A.P. Wire, as reported in the Charlottesville Daily Progress. Three years, $45 million for the elite slugger (at least against righties), and worth it if you can DH him or live with his 1b-4 and have someone to man the post against lefties. Then again, with fewer than thirty on base chances against righties before ballpark diamonds, this will be a hole in your lineup when he doesn’t connect.
George Sherrill signed with the Orioles, avoiding arbitration. This established closer matters in Rotisserie-type leagues, where his saves have value, but his high WHIP and 30 plus age might make you think twice about using him as more than a lefty set-up man in Strat, or banking on him for the future.
Shawn Hill won his arbitration case with the Nationals, netting $775,000 instead of the team’s offer of $500,000. Hill, who went 1-5 with a 5.83 E.R.A. in an injury-shortened season with the Nationals made $402,000 in 2008, and so will receive a 93% raise, instead of the 24% the team offered.
Shawn Camp agreed to a one-year contract with the Blue Jays, avoiding arbitration. Camp, who went 3-1 with a 4.12 E.R.A. in 2008, had asked for $950,000 (a 135% increase over 2008) and the team had countered with $700,000 (a 73% raise). He signed for $750,000, an 85% increase.
The reason I’m including these four here, though I don’t intend to address all the arbitration wins/losses/settles that happen, is that it’s long been my belief that being forced to an arbitration hearing itself, whether the player wins or loses, is more likely to have a negative aspect on a player’s motivation than a positive one because of the nature of his employer’s having to argue the reasons why he is not worth the money he is requesting.
The Giants under Al Rosen were noteworthy for always trying to settle before hearings (as it is, more than 80 percent of all cases settle this way, but the Giants were close to, if not at, 100 percent), precisely for the reason that they didn’t want to damage a player’s confidence in any way. There is a benefit to the player of settling, given that the owners have a 279-206 edge in salary arbitration since it began in 1974 (they do employ the arbitrators, after all). Furthermore, I once asked an agent who was visiting a Sports Law class at Wharton what he thought about that particular operating principle of Rosen’s Giants, and he said something to the effect of “yeah, we know that, and so we love those situations.”
Still, one of the biggest myths about pay is thinking that pay rate (or negotiated salary in this case) equals pay cost (which takes into account what you are getting performance-wise for that salary, more of a cost accounting analysis). If you can get more or better performance in ways that matter to your organization (not just on field performance, but commitment, team play, community involvement, mentoring younger members, etc.) from paying slightly higher salaries (as is the case by settling instead of forcing a hearing), it makes sense to do so. It also removes the risk of being on the losing end of a final-offer decision, as has happened in 42% of cases. So, which Shawn is more likely to become complacent and which likely will be more committed to his team? Hill, whose team forced him to a hearing, even though he ended up winning his case and getting a 93% raise, or Camp, whose team negotiated a mutually-satisfying 85% increase? I’d go with Camp, injuries and age (he’s thirty-three, compared to Hill’s twenty-seven) aside.
Other players who settled before their hearings:
RHP Matt Guerrier, Twins, RHP Brian Bannister, Royals, RHB 3B Garrett Atkins, Rockies, RHP Justin Verlander, Tigers, RHB 2B Rickie Weeks, Brewers, and LHB 1B Casey Kotchman, Braves.
Remaining free agents:
For your perusal, here is a list of remaining free agents, with pitchers and catchers set to report in two days. Manny Ramirez seems to be headed to the Dodgers or Giants, though a one year $25 million offer from the Dodgers hasn’t been enough to get it done, and Adam Dunn and Bobby Abreu have been mentioned as an almost 2 for 1 alternative to Manny. The following are in tentative rank order (by position) of likely perceived attractiveness to you as a Strat player, but this is only a first brush look.
Starting pitchers
Braden Looper, Paul Byrd, Pedro Martinez, Tom Glavine, Livan Hernandez, Mark Mulder, Kenny Rogers, Curt Schilling
Relief pitchers
Joe Beimel, Juan Cruz, Will Ohman, Dennys Reyes, Rudy Seanez, Al Reyes, Eric Gagne, Jason Isringhausen
Catchers
Paul LoDuca, Ivan Rodriguez
First base
Doug Mientkiewicz, Rich Aurilia, Kevin Millar, Richie Sexson
Second base
Orlando Hudson, Ray Durham, Mark Grudzielanek
Shortstop
Orlando Cabrera
Third base
Joe Crede
Outfielders
Manny Ramirez, Adam Dunn, Bobby Abreu, Garret Anderson, Jim Edmonds, Ken Griffey, Jr., Jay Payton