Trans-STRAT-ctions III
By Joe Harder - Guest Writer
01/01/2009
Best lefty closer since Billy Wagner?
Brian Fuentes, dob: 8/9/75, lhp, signs with Angels. California native (Merced, for those who care) Fuentes returns to the Golden State to take over closing duties in the wake of KRod’s departure. Though effective, he is 33, and he is a lefty who is better against lefties (.471 OPS in 2008) than righties, though his .591 vs. righties is still pretty good. Each of the last three seasons he has thrown just over 60 innings, given up fewer hits than innings, and walked about 3 batters per nine innings pitched for a cumulative WHIP of 1.13. A positive sign is that he roughly halved his home runs allowed last year (three in 2008 vs. six, eight, and eight the prior three seasons) and struck out almost fifty percent more batters in 2008, with 82, than in 2007, when he had 56. Given Scioscia’s propensity for 1-inning saves, he’ll likely be used similarly going forward. If anything, this decreases the value of Jose Arredondo, Darren Oliver, Scot Shields and any other formerly potential KRod replacements, in a saves sense, but as mentioned before, unless you play Closer Rules, that may not matter that much in Strat. Expect a few good seasons before a natural age-related decline.
Best Ivy League quarterback in baseball?
Mark DeRosa, dob: 2/26/75, rhb, traded to Indians for minor leaguers. Versatile DeRosa played first, second, third, short, left, and right for the Cubs in 2008, but is penciled in at third with the Indians. If he can repeat last year’s .376 on base and .481 slugging percentage (a little lower against righties, higher against lefties), he’ll still have value even if he loses his positional versatility, but his career line is a more human .279/.348/.422, and if he regresses to that you likely can do better. But perhaps after his playing days are over, he’ll join fellow Quaker Doug Glanville as an inveterate Strat player.
Digging deep for starting pitching
LHP Randy Johnson , dob: 9/10/63, signs with Giants. Slotted into the Giants’ rotation with Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez (assuming they don’t stupidly trade him for Jorge Cantu), and major disappointment Barry Zito, with Noah Lowry on the fringes, the Big Unit brings his quest for 300 victories to the Bay. As a Giants fan, I see them losing an amazing quantity of 1-0, 2-1, and 3-2 games en route to a 70 win season. The defense may be decent, though fellow new acquisition Edgar Renteria no longer has much range at short, and if Pablo Sandoval plays third, whoever is in left will be busy running in to grab twelve-hoppers through the left side of the infield (which, with three or four lefties in the rotation could be happening a lot). And the offense will likely be abysmal (see Mike SanClemente’s review of Giants rookies for details), unless a surprise move still occurs before Spring Training (Bonds to play first?). Still, wins and losses for starting pitchers don’t matter that much in Strat, and Johnson still shows signs of being effective, even without being starred or having quite the strikeout ratio that he did in his prime.
RHP Brad Penny dob: 5/24/78, signs with Red Sox. Penny has had some good seasons not that long ago, and the Red Sox are banking on a return to form. May be worth a flier for you as well, though he will be turning 31 during the 2009 season, though you have to go back to 2004 to find a decent WHIP, with more recent years hovering around 1.30.
RHP Daniel Cabrera, dob: 5/28/81 signs with Nationals. Tons of potential, tons of walks. This is just what the Nationals need to move up in the ranks of the N.L. East and draw fans to their no-longer-so-new ballpark. At least he won’t have to change residences if he doesn’t want to, and the Washington Post typesetters can re-use the headline “Cabrera walks x in yet another loss.” But…could the change of scenery make him the next Fausto Carmona, at least for a year? Take a chance and let me know how it turns out for you.
LHP Mark Hendrickson, dob: 6/23/74 signs with Orioles. Do you need a mop-up lefty reliever or a 6th starter? Soon to be thirty-five year old Hendrickson may be the guy for you. If I were the Orioles, I would have rather given Cabrera yet another chance than bring in Hendrickson, but that’s why I don’t make the big bucks…
Good defense centerfielders who struggle to get on base
Willy Taveras, dob: 12/25/81, rhb, signs with Reds, joining the Reds’ outfield mix (probably making Laynce Nix and possibly Norris Hopper, addressed in the last column, less valuable). People who have their birthdays on Christmas always complain that they get shortchanged on presents in the deal. Well, the Reds likely got shortchanged on this one. They are clearly hoping for a return to 2007 form for Willy, as G.M. Walt Jocketty was quoted on MLB.com as saying, "If he gets back to being an on-base guy that hits ground balls, it creates a lot of havoc on the bases…He can get on base ahead of the big guys, and we can score more runs." The key word in that quote is the first one…”if.” Taveras has had one good on base season, 2007, when he managed a .367, but even that isn’t much above the major league mean, he provides virtually no power, and though he plays decent defense (cf-2(-3)e8 in 2007), that may not be enough for your Strat team. At least the move from Colorado probably won’t hurt him as much as it would a real hitter. Taveras is odds-on favorite to win the “Corey Patterson Clone Award” in 2009.
Corey Patterson, dob: 8/13/79, lhb, signs minor league deal with Nationals, with invitation to Spring Training. Career on base percent under .300, and .238 last year. This is just what the Nationals need to move up in the ranks of the N.L. East and draw fans to their no-longer-so-new ballpark (nb: this sentence would be an example of my nine year old’s creation “Sarcasm Man - Spreading Sarcasm to the Far Reaches of the Universe”). Again, decent defense in center, though not as good an arm as Taveras’s, but I still suspect you should stay away. Patterson is odds-on favorite to win the “Willy Taveras Wanna-Be Award” in 2009.
Casey, who would you draft first? A catcher. Why? Otherwise, you’ll have an awful lot of passed balls…
Josh Bard, dob: 3/30/78, shb, signs with Red Sox. Bard was a monster in 2006, decent in 2007, and unplayable in 2008. As a replacement to the rapidly declining Jason Varitek, he may see a lot of playing time, and if he is a free agent in your league he could be worth a cheap pick. Plus, he’s an Aries, and 2009 bodes well for we Rams.
Michael Barrett, dob: 10/22/76, rhb, signs minor league deal with Blue Jays. Bard’s even less productive San Diego teammate gets a chance north of the border to return to his career norms of .264/.320/.422 from last year’s .202/.274/.298, but I’m not sure the exchange rate favors that. One of the best teams in my league used Barrett as their starting catcher for a few years, but that was a few years ago.
Chris Snyder, dob: 2/12/81, rhp, signs an extension with Diamondbacks. You could do worse for a backup catcher than someone with an on base percentage of almost .350 and a slugging percentage over .450, which Snyder has achieved or approached each of the last three seasons. In my ten team league he went in the seventh round last year, which prompted me to take Carlos Ruiz later in the round (who was actually better against righties). With more highly-touted (and lefty hitting) Miguel Montero in the Diamondback mix, Snyder may end up on the wrong side of a platoon.
“Relief help” as an oxymoron?
Joe Nelson, dob: 10/25/74, rhp, signs with Rays. In each of Nelson’s four major league seasons he has improved his ERA, WHIP, OBP allowed, and SLUG PCT allowed. Then again, those seasons were in 2001, 2004, 2006, and 2008, which befits a thirty-four year old journeyman reliever. However, Joe Maddon’s Rays were astute in their bullpen use, and Nelson well might turn in a solid relief card for 2009 as well as 2008. A contending team could use this card.
Arthur Rhodes, dob: 10/24/69, lhp, signs with Reds. Lefty gets out lefties reasonably well, but righties abuse him and he will turn 40 toward the end of 2009.
Mike Lincoln, dob: 4/10/75, rhp, re-signs with Reds. Reversed righty possibly will have a useful card in 2008, but a career 1.46 WHIP and .459 slugging percentage allowed suggest that he won’t help the Reds, or you, enough to merit a draft pick.