Trans-STRAT-ctions II
By Joe Harder - Guest Writer
12/25/2008
Trans-STRAT-ctions II – December 25, 2008
First off, I apologize to all Aaron Heilman owners (including fellow Stratogist Karl Farmer) for the brain glitch that occurred in my first column. Of course, he (Heilman, not Farmer) is moving to the Mariners, not the Marlins, so will have to compete for a starting role (if he is to have one, which he himself prefers) with Felix Hernandez, Carlos Silva, Brandon Morrow, Erik Bedard, Jarrod Washburn, and Ryan Rowland-Smith. Take heart, Karl, this should still be easier than his hypothetically cracking the Marlins rotation would have been. There is also talk he may close in J.J. Putz’s absence, competing with Miguel Batista and Mark Lowe for that spot in the bullpen. Heilman, documenting that he knows the concept “show me the money” as it applies to MLB, is quoted on the Mariners’ web site as saying that if he can’t start, “closing would be the next best thing.”
With that said, here’s an update on signings in MLB and their implications for Strat players.
The big bopper
Mark Teixeira, dob: 4/11/80, shb, joins a potent Yankees lineup. At 29 shortly after the 2009 seasons starts, and as an established major league producer, he should have several good years in this lineup. He did much better the second half of 2008, including with Atlanta before the trade to the Angels, including absolutely mashing A.L. righties (nb: the Angels didn’t play the Red Sox after the trade). In any keeper league, it’s kind of academic, but if you can grab him, do it. By the way, using a 5% discount rate, his contract is “only” worth about $150 million in current terms…Note, too, this makes Kendry Morales a more attractive choice for the future, even if his card now is not great.
Shortstops
Rafael Furcal, dob: 10/24/77, shb, re-signs with the Dodgers. Furcal’s 2008 (and to a lesser extent 2007) was limited by injuries, but what a limited Strat card he ought to have! Use him now against tough lefties (though he’s good against righties as well) or off the bench, but assume some regression to his career numbers of .286/.352/.412 as opposed to a strict repeat of his .357/.439/.573 2008 season.
Adam Everett, dob: 2/5/77, on the wrong side of thirty, rhb, moves to Detroit to become Edgar Renteria’s replacement. He’s a consistent 2 now at shortstop in Strat, and I don’t know if he’ll reclaim his former 1. I certainly hear talk that there is a “stickiness” to Strat’s defensive ratings from year to year, so if a player loses a better rating it’s hard to get it back, but it all remains a mysterious and wonderful indecipherable to me. That said, I am reminded of Bill James’s words on Duane Kuiper – “a pathetically inept offensive ballplayer at best.” Then again, Kuiper went out and had his best season ever the next year, .289 or so, if I recall, and may have even gone deep once! Everett at least had some decent pop one season, and he’s had good wheels, and does let you play all those little ball moves, if that’s what you like, but I’m thinking I’m going to cut him before our draft.
Cesar Izturis, dob: 2/10/80, shb, moves to Baltimore to become Freddie Bynum’s replacement? Clearly an aficionado of Crash Davis’s advice to Nuke Laloosh in Bull Durham, Izturis was quoted in the Washington Post as saying “This is a good opportunity to play every day. I think they needed a defensive shortstop. I just want to help the team win. It will be fun.” He will likely get to play, but with a lifetime OBP of .299 and with so many shortstops getting 2’s in this year’s card set, you’re likely to be able to do better offensively, like with a guy I own with the same last name. Maicer is the Izturis to have in this card set, pulling the ss-2, 2b-2, 3b-3, and probably minimally tolerable on base versus righties for the bottom of your order.
Might fill a need
Greg Norton, dob: 7/6/72, shb, signs with Braves. Nice switch-hitting limited use card for this year’s set, and better against righties, but he’s pretty old to expect continued guaranteed production. Take him late if he helps you now, and figure anything else is a bonus.
Jason Michaels, dob: 5/4/76, rhb, signs with Astros. Michaels has hit only .207 and .228 the last two seasons, though he did manage an OBP of a whopping .300 last year, compared to the previous season’s .258. Truthfully, his good stretch was 2002-2005, and it’s unlikely he’ll regain that form.
Laynce Nix, dob: 10/30/80, lhb, signs with Reds. Former Rangers prospect gets another chance, and with Ryan Freel having moved on, maybe he gets a chance to show some of the promise that he’s never attained.
Norris Hopper, dob: 3/24/79, rhb, re-signs with Reds. Hopper had a good 2007, with decent on base on both sides of his card, but fell off last year in limited at bats. With Ryan Freel having moved on, maybe he gets a chance to regain that form.
Joey Gathright, dob: 4/27/81, lhb, signs with Cubs. The Cubbies shore do like them low on base speedy outfielders, but maybe they’re banking on Gathright’s returning to his 2007 form, when he hit .307/.371/.342. But notice that .342 is the highest slugging percentage of his career, so don’t expect much there. He’s one of the few major league hitters with a higher career on base percentage than slugging percentage, and while these guys can be useful in Strat, it’s usually for very specific purposes, complementary to an otherwise solid team.
Matt Treanor, dob: 3/3/76, rhb, signs with Tigers. Treanor joins Gerald Laird with the Tigers, and looks to be the backup. He’s one of the few major league hitters with a higher career on base percentage than slugging percentage…
Jamie Burke**, dob: 9/24/71, rhb, re-signs with Seattle. Burke has had two nice years as a backup Strat catcher, including 2004 when I drafted him, and 2007 when he was on my list (but I had David Ross higher and took him). 2008 was not one of them, nor is 2009 likely to be. Still, if Kenji Johjima doesn’t re-find his offensive success, Burke could get some playing time in excess of last season’s 92 at bats.
Aaron Boone, dob: 3/9/73, rhb, signs with Astros. For the Nationals, Boone posted a .241/.299/.384 season, but with the Marlins just two years ago he managed a .286/.388/.423 effort. That must be what the Astros remember…
Jody Gerut, dob: 9/18/77, lhb, signs with Padres. Gerut had a nice little 2008 season, with a .290/.352/.469 line against righties, and actually a higher batting average (.308) and slugging percentage (.585) against lefties while playing good defense in the outfield.
Trot Nixon*, dob: 4/11/74, lhb, and Chris Duffy*, dob: 4/20/80, lhb, signed with Brewers. Nixon’s best years were 2001-2004, and he hasn’t shown much since. Pass. Duffy had a great limited card when he came up, but then kind of disappeared. May be worth a flier.
Juan Rivera, dob: 7/3/78, rhb, signed with Angels (3 years). Well, the Angels say they’re happy with their outfield now, so Rivera looks to get about the same kind of playing time as this year, or more, if he manages to produce closer to his career level of .284/.331/.468 than last year’s .246/.282/.468.
The southpaws
LHP Chris Capuano**, dob: 8/19/78, re-signs with the Brewers. Former Blue Devil who missed all of last year, and sports a career ERA of 4.39 and a WHIP of 1.36 in the N.L. I guess if it’s between he and Mike Hampton…
LHP John Bale, dob: 5/22/74 signed with the Royals. Obviously not a fan of Crash Davis’s advice to Nuke Laloosh, Bale used his pitching hand to punch a hotel room door while on the disabled list in May, resulting in only 13 games pitched. 1.42 career WHIP screams “stay away.”
LHP Jamie Moyer, dob: 11/18/62, re-signs with the Phillies, for two years (!). My dad’s favorite football player was George Blanda, who at age 48 sparked the Raiders as kicker and backup quarterback for a bunch of weeks in a row, and he loved the Over The Hill Gang that the Redskins had. He would have loved Moyer. But you have no need to, at least in Strat terms, despite his 3.71 ERA last year, as his 1.33 WHIP probably makes him no better than a 5th starter for most teams, and why not get younger? Then again, if, as one of my opponents does, you play in an extreme left handed park (his is 1-19 for both singles and home runs for lefties, and only 1-1 for righties), Moyer may be useful (as he decided he was in our last draft).
LHPs Heath Phillips*, dob: 3/24/82, and Lenny DiNardo*, dob: 9/19/79 sign with Royals. Phillips had a decent 7.1 innings with the White Sox two years ago, and will be 27 entering 2009, though obviously not carded for 2008. DiNardo, who will turn 30 late in the season, has a career on base against of .368 to go along with his career WHIP of 1.59. Boy, those Royals will be tough next year, won’t they?
Right handed pitching
RHP Josh Johnson, dob:1/31/84, re-signs with Marlins, looking to build on his solid, if limited, 2008 campaign. Still young, still tall (6’ 7”, 230), no reason to believe he can’t repeat what he did in 2006 and 2008, even if it is an odd-numbered year.
RHP Chien-Ming Wang, dob: 3/31/80, re-signs with Yankees. Despite a short season last year, Wang has showed amazing consistency in his MLB career, with WHIPS of 1.25, 1.31, 1.29, and 1.32 and slugging percent alloweds of .370, .375, .368, and .335. You could do worse as a 3rd or 4th Strat starter
RHP Luke Hudson*, dob: 5/2/77, re-signs with Royals. Again, with a career WHIP of 1.47, and no performance in 2008, this is not the Hudson you want pitching for your Strat team next year. Oh to be a Royals fan looking forward to these Spring Training battles!
RHP Denny Bautista* dob: 8/23/80, re-signs with Pirates. Let’s see…for the Tigers during the first part of 2008 his WHIP was 1.43 against lefties and 1.58 against righties. For the Pirates later in the season his lefty numbers blew up to 2.73 (!) though he managed a still intolerable 1.45 against righties (netting 1.79 overall for Pittsburgh). And they re-signed him? Okay, at least it was to a minor league contract. If your league has those, you might consider it…and his career WHIP is better than last year’s, at 1.72…
* Signed a minor league deal with an invitation to Spring Training
** Signed a minor league deal