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Trans-STRAT-ctions I

By Joe Harder - Guest Writer
12/17/2008

Twenty four to consider:

  1. Francisco Rodriguez to Mets, DOB: 1/7/82, rhp - Since arriving on the Strat scene with his low innings card following his lights out playoff performance in 2002 for the Angels, KRod has become a closing ace, culminating in the record-setting season of last year. The real question in Strat, though, is how good his card is, and, perhaps more importantly, how should elite reliever cards be used during play (hint: probably in more high leverage situations than in one inning or less “easy” saves, which epitomized KRod’s 2008). With regard to his 2008 performance, his ratio was good, but not stellar, and lefties beat him up a bit. With the Mets, expect similar usage (especially with the acquisition of J.J. Putz and other possible set-up men), similarly good Strat results (barring injury), and a likely drop off in the number of saves, as he hits his late 20’s prime. His overall whip last year was 1.29, including 1.46 vs. lefties, who also managed a .346 on base percentage against him. So, while he may shut down righties, lefties will likely reach him.

  2. Kerry Wood to Indians, DOB: 6/16/77, rhp - great whip, more than one strikeout per inning, k/bb ratio of more than 4:1…there’s a lot to like here, but be aware that he will turn 32 during the 2009 season. Likely to get a similar number of save chances with Cleveland as with the Cubbies, but that’s not that relevant for Strat. Will moving to the “tougher” league hurt him, will the novelty factor help, or will they cancel each other out? That’s your dilemma.

  3. C.C. Sabathia to Yankees, DOB: 7/21/80, lhp - Okay, lefty starting pitchers don’t do as well in Strat as in real life, right? At least that’s true in my All Star league, since there are so many right handed batters who mash them, and even if those hitters are limited, that side of the platoon isn’t used nearly as often on average. That said, C.C. is a starred starter pretty much every year, he’s still youngish, he’s moving to a situation that seems committed to competing, he’s familiar with both leagues now…and I’m still not sold. Maybe it’s his size, maybe it’s how he wears his hat, maybe it’s that he’s a lefty, maybe I’m remembering the Giants signing of Barry Zito, but I’m happy I didn’t lay out the dollars for him or use a high draft choice in my league.

  4. Nick Swisher to Yankees, DOB: 11/25/80, shb - Swisher has never been the high average type, but his .219 in 2008, his twenty-seven year old season, was a low water mark. A lot of that, however, can be explained by bad luck, a “batting average on balls in play” (BABIP) 100 points lower than would be expected for the percentage of line drives he was hitting, at least as of early June when he was at .201, this according to Peter Bendix in “What’s Wrong With Nick Swisher” in Beyond The Boxscore. I haven’t seen any end of season BABIP data, for Swisher or anyone else, but I suspect Swisher’s bad luck must have more or less held for the entire year. He still added about 100 points of on base percentage onto his abysmal batting average, as he has done consistently in his career, and I think he will rebound nicely, performing well for the Yankees and for your Strat team using the 2009 cards.

  5. Huston Street to Rockies, DOB: 8/2/83, rhp - Street lost his closer’s job in Oakland during 2008, but actually ended up having an okay year, Strat-wise. He’s young enough to rebound, and pitching in Colorado isn’t nearly the negative it used to be.

  6. Carlos Gonzalez to Rockies, DOB: 10/17/85, lhb - Not much to show for 2008, Strat-wise, but a top 20 card for future value. Will get every opportunity to replace Holliday, albeit from the left side.

  7. Russell Branyan to Mariners, DOB: 12/19/75, lhb - For 2008 cards, Branyan would be a solid left handed stick off the bench, as he slugged about 100 points higher than his career average in 151 plate appearances, and he may be worth a flyer assuming he becomes a near regular for Seattle in 2009. He is 33, though, so a decline phase is likely, and a regression to his career numbers of .230/.328/.485 may come from more regular play. Still an OPS of 1.030 against rhp in 2008 could be useful, albeit with limited plate appearances, as long as you have a decent option who could sub defensively (I have Scott Rolen).

  8. Ramon Ramirez to Red Sox, DOB: 8/31/81, rhp - After a lost season in 2007, Ramirez rebounded in 2008, providing a useful card, and is still young enough to continue his success in the Boston bullpen. Good age to pick him up, too. Not to be confused with Ramon A. Ramirez, starter for Cincinnati, DOB: 9/16/82. He may be good too, though he hasn’t changed teams and can’t relieve; just make sure to get the one you want!

  9. Matt Joyce to Rays, DOB: 8/3/84, lhb - Joyce, a Tampa native, turned in an admirable season for the Tigers in part-time play, and looks to build on that as the likely starter in right field for the Rays (assuming he can beat out Gabe Gross and Fernando Perez). If he’s not ready this year, though, expect the Rays to option him to the minors, so this may be a card you use as a lefty pinch hitter now, then hold for a few years to see if/how his career pans out. While he slugged over .500 against righties, he was not inept against lefties, at least in the on base department, in limited at bats, actually achieving more walks (6) than hits (5) against southpaws for an OBP of .393.

  10. Coco Crisp to Royals, DOB: 11/1/79, shb - Covelli Loyce Crisp moves to the Royals, where he will get plenty of playing time. In 2008 he had decent on base against righties (.353), but not much power that way (slugging percentage of .383). His average and slugging were better against lefties, but his OBP was only .317 that way. You may want to take a flyer on him for his twenty nine year old season and usually good defense, but he has only managed a career line of .280/.331/.409.

  11. Ramon Vazquez to Pirates, DOB: 8/21/76, lhb - Check out Vazquez’s 2008 Strat card for current value as a utility player (or even a starting third baseman if you have a defensive sub, as I do with Rolen’s 3b-1). No promises of anything more, but he will spell Jack Wilson at short, the disappointing Andy LaRoche at third, and Freddy Sanchez at second, and if LaRoche never finds his stroke, Vazquez could play a lot. That said, last year was well above his career norms in average, OBP, and slugging percent, so expect a regression to the mean.

  12. Jorge Julio to Brewers, DOB: 3/3/79, rhp - Julio had a nice little season in 2008, and isn’t too old to duplicate that with the newly competitive Brew Crew. Could get a closer rating with Milwaukee in 2009 if you play that rule.

  13. Raul Ibanez to Phillies, DOB: 6/2/72, lhb - The largely unheralded Ibanez, who will turn 37 during the 2009 season, is one of just five outfielders who have driven in at least 100 runs in each of the last three seasons, averaging 26 homers and 113 RBIs during that time. Even discounting the value of RBIs as a stat with which to make Strat judgments, that’s some fairly consistent production. In 2008, he was a reversed lefty, refuting the “percentages” by hitting better against same-sided pitching, and there’s sometimes value in having one of those in your lineup or on the bench. The question is when the drop off comes, but last year at least, he was superior after the All-Star Break, so maybe it’s still a few years off.

  14. Edwin Jackson to Tigers, DOB: 9/9/83, rhp - Post-hype former Dodger prospect Jackson is on my sleeper radar for our next draft (shhh), as Edinson Volquez and Mike Pelfrey were last year and Fausto Carmona and Jason Hirsh were the year before (I have Pelfrey, Carmona, and Hirsh). Jackson was inconsistent in 2008 for the World Series appearing Rays, but some of his outings showed the promise we read about years ago, and he still only will turn 26 during the 2009 season, when he has been penciled into the Tigers rotation.

  15. Franklin Gutierrez to Mariners, DOB: 2/21/83, rhb - Gutierrez debuted in Strat with a solid defensive rating, with most of his offensive production against lefties, but in 2008 his line against lefties was only .252/.313/.453 (still better than against righties). He may become something, and he’s the right age to take a chance, but he hasn’t shown he’s much more than a defensive stalwart so far.

  16. Mike Jacobs to Royals, DOB: 10/30/80, lhb - continues to struggle against lefties, and in 2008 wasn’t that great against righties either. Still, will get a chance to play, and is on the right side of any platoon with Billy Butler.

  17. David Ross to Braves, DOB: 3/19/77, rhb - In 2006, David Ross had 284 very productive plate appearances for Cincinnati, including a home run every 11.76 at bats, for an overall line of .255/.353/.579. His Strat card that year absolutely murdered lefties, and that’s when I drafted him as my backup catcher. Though he hit almost as many home runs in 2007, it was in far more plate appearances, so his homer rate dropped to once every 18.29 at bats, and his resultant line was a far less enticing (and unplayable) .203/.271/.399. Last year, the power was again absent, but at least he managed an on base percentage of .381, roughly equal vs. lefties and righties, slightly better than the league average. His slugging percentage of .366, though, was lower than his OBP, and he managed a batting average of only .231. So, if you already own him (as do I), he may be good to have on your roster as a good on base pinch hitter/2nd catcher, but I’ll be looking to upgrade on that in my draft with a younger backup catcher who has some pop or is left-handed, or a utility infielder who has the on base, while hanging onto Ross and hoping he finds his 2006 power stroke again as McCann’s backup. If you don’t have him, you’d only think about him if you want a 2nd catcher with a good on base card.

  18. A.J. Burnett to Yankees, DOB: 1/3/77, rhp - Turning thirty two in early 2009, A.J. turned in a very fine 2008, with more than a strikeout per his 221-1/3 innings pitched (one of only three times he’s cracked 200 innings in his ten seasons). And because of prior injuries his arm may actually have less mileage on it than other 32 year olds. The two prior times he’s pitched 200+ innings he has followed with seasons of 23 and 135 innings one season out and 120 and 165 two seasons out, so tread warily. But I doubt that the Yankees (or your Strat team, for that matter) will get five years of commensurate value out of their $80 plus million (or, similarly, your high draft choice in a keeper league). He’s only had three career seasons with a whip under 1.20 (2008’s was 1.34), and his ground ball percentage dropped slightly (with fly ball percentage increasing slightly) from 2007 to 2008, perhaps a troubling sign if he loses velocity with age.

  19. Wes Littleton to Red Sox, DOB: 9/2/82, rhp - Ground ball specialist Littleton deepens the Boston pen, but did not turn in a good season in 2008. You would be picking him for any future value, and he’s only 26.

  20. Ryan Freel to Orioles, DOB: 3/8/76, rhb - Some years, Ryan Freel has been the perfectly versatile Strat player, decent at a number of positions, good on base (against both lefties and righties in some years), good speed. With 2007 cards, when he was an extremely reversed righty batter with 295 plate appearances (limited in our league), I have been starting him at 3b, although he sustained an injury that knocked him out for sixteen games (in our 54 game season)…the upside is we will only have twelve games left, and he should be almost unlimited for those (assuming he doesn’t get hurt again). So, in Strat as in real life, expect injuries, and have a better back-up plan than mine of Esteban German. With 2008 cards, Freel is even more limited, still not great defensively, and will do whatever batting damage he does against lefties. He’s on the wrong side of thirty, and he’s never hit for power. If his card fits your team, go for it, but be careful about setting high expectations for future value, even with his new situation.

  21. Arthur Rhodes to Reds, DOB: 10/24/69, lhp - Thirty nine year old continues to be fairly effective, but for how much longer? Good against lefties in 2008 (more so with Florida than Seattle), he returns to the National League. Just don’t expect much against righties or much future value, but he may plug a hole for a contending Strat team this year.

  22. Ronny Paulino to Phillies, DOB: 4/21/81, rhb - The catching situation in Philadelphia may not appear unsettled with World Series swinging bunt star Carlos Ruiz getting the bulk of the action in 2008, but he took a definite step backward from his decent 2007 card, when I drafted him. If Paulino can refind the hitting stroke he showed when he first got to the majors, he could take serious playing time away from an underachieving Ruiz.

  23. Greg Smith to Rockies, DOB: 12/22/83, lhp - Again, you’d be drafting for future value, but he’s a left-handed starting pitcher, and, again, I believe in Strat they just don’t do as well, so I’d rather take a young right handed prospect.

  24. Wilson Betemit to White Sox, DOB: 11/2/81, shb - Twenty seven year old former Braves prospect manages to never quite put it together, but he does offer versatility as a utility player, playing all four infield positions in 2008. He will probably get decent back-up time in Chicago.

Twenty four to avoid (listed alphabetically):

  1. Jeremy Affeldt to Giants, DOB: 6/6/79, lhp - Okay, maybe the Giants were just warming up and needed to do something, but is this the best they could do to make a splash? His 3.33 era last year for Cincinnati looks okay, but 103 batters allowed in 78-1/3 innings makes for a whip of 1.31 (a tolerable 1.19 versus lefties and 1.39 versus righties), and lefties actually have a higher slugging percentage against him than do righties. Turns thirty during the season. I don’t see the value or the future potential.

  2. Emilio Bonifacio to Marlins, DOB: 4/23/85, shb - He’s fast, but the question is whether he will ever put it together offensively. He should get playing time with Florida, though he likely would have with Washington as well, so you’re banking on the same future you would have been before the trade. For my money, I’d rather have speedy weak-switch-hitting rookie middle infielder Emmanuel Burriss and his .350 on base each way of the Giants (but I’m a homer, and he’ll probably be in a transactions report before too long anyway).

  3. Endy Chavez to Mariners, DOB: 2/7/78, lhb - Thirty year old utility players can be very useful for your Strat team, depending on what you need to complement your every day roster. However, a .267/.308/.330 line in 287 plate appearances at the three outfield positions probably defines the notion of “replacement player,” so why not go for someone younger?

  4. Alan Embree to Rockies, DOB: 1/23/70, lhp - Classic lefty had a WHIP of 1.20 and an OPS allowed of .719 vs. lefties to go with his 1.58 and .795 vs. righties. Combined this makes the soon-to-be thirty nine year old a stopgap measure for the Rockies, and I would suspect, you too. His last three seasons’ record of innings pitched, strikeouts, and walks show a troubling recent trend upward in walks: 2006: 52 ip, 53 k, 15 bb, for a k/bb ratio of 3.53; 2007: 68 ip, 51 k, 19 bb, k/bb of 2.68; 2008: 61 ip, 57 k, 30 bb, k/bb of 1.90.

  5. Kyle Farnsworth to Royals, DOB: 4/14/76, rhp - Wichita native returns to home state (well, close, but I guess technically the state next door) to serve as set-up man for Joakim Soria on a team that is not likely to be very good. This isn’t always a huge deal in Strat, but his 1.50+ whip from 2008 (1.67 vs. lefties, 1.41 vs. righties) for the Yankees and Tigers renders him a mop-up option at best for most teams that would hope to compete, and in that role he only provides 60 innings pitched, so you can probably do better.

  6. Sean Green to Mets, DOB: 4/20/79, rhp - A 2008 whip of 1.47, and an era of 4.67 is supposed to help the much-maligned Mets bullpen? It won’t help yours much either, and he’s turning thirty shortly after Opening Day. Probably better options out there for your Strat team (though he could vulture a few wins to help a Rotisserie team).

  7. Khalil Greene to Cardinals, DOB: 10/21/79, rhb - Decent, somewhat fragile defender who has had one season in the majors with an OBP over .320, five seasons ago, and in 2007 when he hit 27 home runs while slugging .468, he managed an OBP of only .291. I find that hard to play in Strat.

  8. Mike Hampton to Astros, DOB: 9/9/72, lhp - Unless he’s your kid’s favorite player, I don’t think he’s worth a draft choice. But he’s only thirty six, and maybe has some mileage left in his arm, but I’d be more likely to grab him if the Astros still played in the Dome instead of whatever Enron is now called.

  9. Aaron Heilman to Mariners, DOB: 11/12/78, rhp - From 2005 to 2007, Heilman had a composite whip of 1.13 in 281 innings pitched, with 7.75 strikeouts per nine innings and a k/bb ratio of 2.85:1. Last year? Not so much. Though his strikeout rate hit 9.5 per nine innings, his whip of 1.59 and k/bb ratio of only 1.74:1 makes his card unusable, and his having turned thirty suggests looking elsewhere. Still, as one of the goats of the Mets’ bullpen woes last year, perhaps the change of scenery is just what he needs to return to his twenty six to twenty eight year old prime. There is talk that he will be tried as a starter, but with Ricky Nolasco, Josh Johnson, Chris Volstad, Anibal Sanchez, and Andrew Miller already in place, Heilman doesn’t seem to have a spot. They do seem to need a closer, however…

  10. Ramon Hernandez to Reds, DOB: 5/20/76, rhb - Okay, time for a quiz. This team has tried Jason Larue, David Ross, and Javier Valentin at catcher over the last few years, and even brought in Corky Miller at one point. Answer: The Reds? Absolutely, but also my Charlottesville Meadows. Now, in my defense, in Strat, both Ross and Valentin had extremely attractive hitting cards the year I drafted them, and Larue was productively productive for a few years, but it has been a trouble spot for me for years, being filled with the likes of Joe Girardi, a late career Jim Leyritz, Gregg Zaun, and Sal Fasano (at least Cincinnati didn’t have to resort to that). So now thirty three year old Ramon Hernandez gets to play out his declining years in the River City. In 2008, he was thirty sixth in the majors in on base percentage among catchers who had at least 100 at bats, at .308. Let’s just say I’m likely to be much happier with my solution at catcher (Geovany Soto) than the Reds will be with theirs.

  11. Bobby Howry to Giants, DOB: 8/4/73, rhp - I owned Howry awhile ago when he had an extremely reversed right handed relief card, and he was almost as good as a lefty out of the pen against certain lefties. He’ll likely get some chances to pitch in high leverage situations for the Giants, and if (or when) Brian Wilson’s whip gets the better of him as a closer, Howry may get some chances there as well. This year’s card is no help, with over a hundred runners allowed in just over seventy innings pitched, and I see no reason to expect anything more in the future (but I’m hoping the Giants see something that, again, proves me wrong).

  12. Gerald Laird to Tigers, DOB: 11/13/79, rhb - Laird moves from a packed situation in Texas, with Taylor Teagarden and Jarrod Saltalamacchia, to the likely starting job in Detroit, but with a career line of .255/.306/.383 he hasn’t delivered on his promise so far. Still, he’s been strong defensively in Strat, so if you need a defensive catcher or someone who is likely to be a full-timer in 2009 you could do worse than this twenty nine year old.

  13. Felipe Lopez to Diamondbacks, DOB: 5/12/80, shb - Turned in a solid third of a season after being traded from the Nationals to the Cardinals following an abysmal two thirds of a year. This year’s card probably won’t be worth much, and he’ll turn 29 during the 2009 season. Pass.

  14. Mark Loretta to Dodgers, DOB: 8/14/71, rhb - Career .361 on base percentage, but strange that he only has exceeded that figure four times in his fourteen year career. Not likely to get there again, but his .330/.419/.485 versus left handed pitching in 2008 might make him valuable off your bench or in a platoon role, and that’s probably all he’ll be good for in Los Angeles as well in 2009.

  15. Trever Miller to Cardinals, DOB: 5/29/73, lhp - Lefty gets lefties okay, but righties abuse him, and he’ll turn thirty six early in the 2009 season.

  16. Scott Olsen to Nationals, DOB: 1/12/84, lhp - Normal left handed starter who wasn’t that good in 2008, going 8-11 with a 4.20 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. Rumored to have some “difficulties” in his comportment as well, but the Nats have been building their strategy around getting those types cheap (Delmon Young will probably join this lot soon).

  17. J.J. Putz to Mets , DOB: 2/22/77, rhp - J.J. had forty saves in 2007, but his 2008 was pretty undistinguished (albeit at least partly due to health problems), and I suspect, not useful to your team either. Moving to the Mets as insurance if KRod blows up, and in a good set-up situation, he may give you some small future value, but if you’re going to use a draft pick, I would think either go younger or obtain more value now.

  18. Jeremy Reed to Mets, DOB: 6/15/81, lhp - A .269/.314/.360 line from 2008 doesn’t overwhelm, though at twenty seven at the start of the season, if he’s ever going to become something, now would be the time. His .674 OPS in 2008 was amazingly close to his career mark of .679, and he’s never really come close to reaching again his first sixty five career plate appearances’ .936, so I wouldn’t be counting on much of a leap forward.

  19. Edgar Renteria to Giants, DOB: 8/7/75, rhb - He’s a ss-3 these days and as a Giants fan, it’s hard to believe he’s the solution to their problems. That’s probably true of your Strat team as well, as he turned in his lowest OPS, at .699, since 2001, when he turned in a .685 for the Cardinals in, yes, the National League, the return to which is supposed to revitalize this thirty three year old. I’m not buying, and I wish the Giants hadn’t either (please make me eat my words :-).

  20. Scott Schoeneweis to Diamondbacks, DOB: 10/2/73, lhp - This thirty five year old lefty is another classic “gets the lefties out” kind of pitcher, and in fact was quite good against lefties in 2008, with a 0.79 WHIP, a .243 OBP allowed, and .277 slugging percentage allowed. However, against righties he was somewhat combustible, at 2.05 WHIP, .423 OBP, and .532 slugging percentage, so in Strat he really only would be useful against the lefty bats in your opponent’s lineup for whom you know he/she would not pinch hit. Do you need one of these? Perhaps, but I’d rather have someone who is a bit more tolerable against righties, or maybe younger for some future value possibilities. Just for the record, righties have batted .303, .306, .257, .316, and .333 against Schoeneweis from 2004-2008, so his ability to get out righties is not likely to change in 2009.

  21. Joe Smith to the Mariners, DOB: 3/22/84, rhp - Twenty four year old Joe Smith, only the second “Joe Smith” out of the 147 Smiths to ever play major league baseball, becomes another ostracized member of the Mets’ bullpen, and finds new opportunity in his home state of Ohio. He held righties to a .192 batting average against in 2008, but lefties torched him for a .903 OPS, so unless he irons that out, his future is likely to be limited in both Strat and non-dice baseball. For what it’s worth, there are currently three “Sean Smiths” and a “Stantrel Smith” active in MLB, and other selected Smiths have included “Brick,” “Pop-Boy,” “Klondike,” “Happy,” and “Phenomenal.”

  22. Luis Valbuena to Indians, DOB: 11/30/85, lhb - Lefty slap hitter hit lefties to the tune of a .429 batting average (.500 on base, .429 slugging percent), in all of eight plate appearances. Much more telling is his .214/.283/.333 line against righties, against whom he had 45 plate appearances (with only 3 walks). Okay, he’s young, but that may be about all he has going for him.

  23. Javier Vazquez to Braves, DOB: 7/25/76, rhp - I love Javier Vazquez, and have owned him since he first came up with the Expos. In those years he has served as the ace of my staff at least twice, and has turned in some good years. I’m looking forward to a World Series in my league using 2001 cards in which he had a great card. But 2008 was not a particularly good year for Javy, especially late when either his performance landed him in Ozzie Guillen’s doghouse or Ozzie’s quotes to the press about Javy’s likely choking affected his performance. Either way, it was probably a situation he needed to get out of, and Atlanta could be a good destination for him. Still, he’ll be 32 at the start of the 2009 season, so his best years are probably behind him. If you need a fourth or fifth starter who will pitch a lot of innings and still has elite strikeout numbers, and your intuition says he’s going to respond positively to a switch back to the National League, use a late round pick or get him as a throw-in in a trade. Heck, offer me something reasonable for him, and he’s yours.

  24. Josh Willingham to Nationals, DOB: 2/17/79, rhb - Willingham joins a crowded situation in Washington, with (at the moment) Wily Mo Pena, Elijah Dukes, and Lastings Milledge. Maybe they’re assuming one of them will combust (or maybe they’re not done dealing)? All that said, Willingham was much more balanced in 2008 than when he first came up and was predominantly a lefty basher. He’s adequate at best in the outfield, was injured for a third of last season, and he’ll be thirty in 2009.

Looking ahead to the next report

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